Monstrous problems facing next president
The next president of the country will face major problems – both local and international issues – that he or she will have to squarely face. China’s reported deployment of an advanced HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system in the eastern portion of Woody Island, an area also contested by Taiwan and Vietnam, has now become the greatest threat to the Philippines and the Asian region. Whoever is elected in May should obviously have the knowledge to navigate international diplomatic channels.
It was Fox News that broke the story about the deployment of the eight missiles – which experts say is similar to the US Patriot range – that must have been placed sometime between the first and second week of February. This development has now caused alarm bells to ring not only in countries in the ASEAN region but all over the world. This disturbing Chinese move indicates a growing militarization that could have a serious impact geopolitically and even economically given the importance of the South China Sea, with over $5 trillion worth of maritime trade passing through it annually.
Intelligence sources tell us the HQ-9 system can be mounted on a truck and is therefore highly movable, can engage targets (both aircraft and ballistic missiles) at over 80,000 feet high. Why China has chosen to deploy such a highly noticeable system instead of the more covert types shows that the move is deliberate, and wants to put other nations on notice that the Chinese – despite their protestations to the contrary – are bent on beefing up militarily to bolster their claims in the disputed territories both in the Paracels and Spratly Island chains.
In fact, an earlier report in January by the US-based group Center for Strategic International Studies says the South China Sea will be virtually turned into a “Chinese lake” by 2030 because it will be deploying so many aircraft carriers, something that could seriously impact the balance of power in the Asia Pacific region also given the rising threat from North Korea. The study is strongly recommending the US President to sustain military presence in the region and help its partners and allies – the Philippines being obviously one of them – speed up efforts to strengthen their (military) capabilities. China has commissioned its first aircraft carrier, Liaoning, and is building a second one with plans to build more in the coming years. China as expected has denied militarization and railed back at what it terms as “US hypocrisy” – obviously miffed that the latter has not been deterred from engaging in freedom patrols near the disputed territories.
It’s obviously clear to all of us that the current developments are no longer confined to the US and China fighting for control as some people are asserting. The problem involving Woody Island – and the dangerous game of brinkmanship that China is playing – is something that could blow up – with some history experts even warning it could trigger a third world war. No one wants to be an alarmist but whether the Philippines likes it or not, it is already involved given its maritime dispute with China. From day one, outgoing Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario has believed that the country should elevate its concern over the continually aggressive moves of China in the disputed territories, which the government did when it lodged its suit before a UN arbitral tribunal. China has continually refused to participate in the proceedings, refusing to recognize the UN arbitration process (despite the fact that it is a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea upon which the suit is based).
Some of our presidential aspirants have the mistaken notion that our maritime dispute can be resolved easily by engaging in one-on-one talks with China. That has not worked, nor will it be as easy as that. The Chinese have long planned to assert their claim in the South China Sea, indicating the issue was never negotiable.
Another major problem awaiting the next president is the country’s growing population which stands at approximately 100,998,376 according to the CIA World Factbook. The monstrous traffic we face everyday compounded by the congested MRT system is likewise only the beginning. By 2021 or five years from now, the population will balloon to 112 million and will reach 128 million by 2030 per estimates by the World Bank and Euromonitor respectively. A very recent article in East Asia Forum says the country’s presidential candidates must “find a way to feed the Philippines,” pointing to our “mammoth population” as a particularly big challenge. Our agriculture sector has been largely neglected and is now at its lowest point. Unemployment and food scarcity could exacerbate hunger and poverty.
No one can dispute that the issues we mentioned are intertwined with the population problem – all of which will ultimately have an impact in the coming decade. All these years, we have been relying on OFW dollar remittances to keep our economy going – but given the current developments in the Middle East (where a large chunk of OFWs are employed), there is a great possibility that they will come home, facing the prospect of unemployment – another problem we have to face. In the end, we remain with a catch-up situation: the population rate outpacing economic growth.
Given this factual scenario, we better choose the next leaders of our country wisely and not just depend on political sound bites. Old style politics can no longer be depended upon as we enter the 21st century. Our new leader must have a vision and not simple rhetoric if we are to survive the challenges we face now and in the future.