After drought, brace for prolonged, intense rains
State climatologists warned yesterday of intense rains particularly over the eastern section of the country by the end of the year until the first quarter of 2017 due to a possible La Niña event.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the possibility of a La Niña phenomenon is likely during the second half of the year.
Anthony Lucero, officer-in-charge of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, said La Niña might start developing during the southwest monsoon season but its impact will be felt by the last quarter of the year.
Areas that may experience abovenormal rainfall are Isabela, Quezon, Samar, Leyte, Surigao, Agusan and the Bicol region.
The weather bureau said strong El Niños are usually followed by equally strong La Niñas.
Based on the latest climate forecasts, Lucero said there is still a “50-50” chance of a La Niña occurrence this year.
La Niña refers to the abnormal cooling in the sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific and is characterized by excessive rainfall.
“There’s still no indication yet (of a developing La Niña),” Lucero told The STAR.
Lucero said the El Niño phenomenon, which has started to weaken, will likely end in July.
“We expect a neutral condition (of the sea surface temperature in the western Pacific) by August,” he said.
Lucero said despite its possible termination in July, the impact of El Niño might still linger until August.
“By July, it will be clear whether or not a La Niña will form,” he said.
Fewer cyclones
Lucero said if a La Niña phenomenon occurs, its impact would not be felt during the southwest monsoon.
“We don’t expect the southwest monsoon to be that strong,” Lucero said, adding that the agency forecasts fewer tropical cyclones due to the lingering effect of El Niño.
The southwest monsoon season starts in May and ends in September.
Lucero said the expected heavy rains from La Niña would be felt during October, November and December.
Its full impact will likely be experienced in December, January and February, he added.
The 1997-1998 strong El Niño was followed by La Niña in 1999, wherein many parts of the country experienced intense rainfall and flooding.
The most tragic effect of the 1999 La Niña was the landslide at the Cherry Hills Subdivision in Antipolo City that killed 58 people.
The last time the Philippines experienced La Niña was in 2012 when some parts of the country, including Metro Manila, were hit by massive flooding due to days of intense rains brought by the southwest monsoon.
Negros bracing for La Niña
After losing almost P450 million in agriculture and fishery revenues to El Niño, the provincial government of Negros Occidental is now bracing for the opposite – La Niña – in the coming months.
Gov. Alfredo Marañon Jr. said on Monday that he ordered the dredging of canals and waterways around the province to prevent flooding.
Marañon issued the order after PAGASA warned of the occurrence of La Niña in the second half of this year.
Meanwhile, the Office of the Provincial Agriculturist (OPA) reported that losses to rice, corn and other high-value crops have reached P255.6 million.
Losses to sugarcane – the province’s main produce – are estimated at P182 million.
The Provincial Veterinary Office reported that El Niño brought at least P12.37 million in losses to livestock and poultry farms.
State of calamity
Due to the huge amount of damage to the local agro-fishery industry, the provincial government had placed Negros Occidental under a state of calamity.
This allowed the provincial government to utilize its P40- million quick response fund to assist farmers and residents affected by drought.
The Department of Agriculture has been conducting cloud-seeding operations across the Negros Island Region to cushion the impact of El Niño.
– With Danny Dangcalan