One win for destiny
Destiny is calling in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup Finals but it’s not clear which team is fated to win the best-of-7 series. Rain Or Shine leads, 3-2, and is a win away from clinching its second title in franchise history. In Game 6 at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight, Alaska is in a winor-go-home situation. If the Aces pull it off, the odds are Alaska will take the crown in Game 7. So, tonight’s encounter is a virtual do-or-die for the Elasto Painters, making it the most pivotal battle in the war.
Rain Or Shine zoomed to a 3- 0 lead and looked ready to bamboozle the Aces in a sweep. The Painters didn’t do anything complicated to seize the advantage. They worked the basics to perfection – ball-screens on top, mismatches in the backcourt, hustle in transition, unselfish play and energy from the bench. The three departments where the Painters overpowered Alaska in the first three games were three-point conversions, fastbreak points and bench points. In those three games, Rain Or Shine averaged 13.3 triple connections (to Alaska’s 10.3), 14.3 fastbreak points (to Alaska’s 3.0) and 68 bench points (to Alaska’s 32.7).
But the key was Alaska’s inability to defend the Painters who averaged a scorching 107 points in those three contests. The Aces couldn’t figure out how to stop the Painters’ ball-screen offense. If they went over the pick and trapped, somehow the ball would find the roller or an open man in the corner for a triple. If they switched, the Painters attacked the mismatch immediately or located the open man with the extra pass. Alaska allowed too much space for Rain Or Shine to explore different offensive options and the Aces just couldn’t consistently stop the pick-and-roll. Worse, Alaska’s pressing defense couldn’t generate the turnovers to ignite the Aces transition attack. And when the Aces went with a small lineup, they couldn’t hold their own under the boards.
It didn’t help Alaska that the Aces were without Vic Manuel, Jvee Casio and Eric Menk so coach Alex Compton had no recourse but to shorten his rotation. In the eliminations, the Aces could go full throttle for 48 minutes because of their deep rotation. Things were now different in the Finals.
Compton’s rotation took another hit when Ping Exciminiano went down with a sprained knee and couldn’t play in Game 4. That prompted Compton to take a chance on seldom-used rookie Kevin Racal who started in Exciminiano’s place. Just when the Painters weren’t looking, the Aces rolled to a 111-99 win and for the first time in the series, had more fastbreak points, 15-3. Alaska’s transformation was reflected in its assist- toturnover ratio of 24:19 compared to the Painters’ 16:18. The Aces weren’t only more efficient but more focused in controlling the boards and finding their spots on the floor for high-percentage shots. Alaska wound up with a series-high 54 percent shooting from the field while the Painters slumped to a series-low 41 percent.
In Game 5, the Aces limited Rain Or Shine to only 78 points, the Painters’ lowest output in over a year. According to PBA head statistician Fidel Mangonon, Alaska is now 11-2 this conference when holding opponents to less than 100 points. Conversely, Rain Or Shine is 11-2 when scoring 100 or more.
Alaska is deadliest when the Aces’ defense is at its fiercest. In the Meralco semifinal series, Alaska’s three wins came when the Bolts were held to an average of 78.7 points. Only two Painters scored in double figures in Game 5 – Jeff Chan with 17 and Paul Lee 16 – while five Aces were in twin digits – Calvin Abueva with 20, Rob Dozier 14, R. J. Jazul 13, Dondon Hontiveros 12 and Cyrus Baguio 11. The same pattern was evident in Game 4 where Alaska had six players in double figure points and Rain Or Shine, four.
The big difference was in free throws as the Aces shot 23-of-27 and Rain Or Shine, only 8-of11. That’s a 15-point disparity and Alaska won by eight, 86-78. An added factor was in another first in the series, Alaska had more bench points, 41-40, negating the Painters’ vaunted advantage.
In Game 6 tonight, Compton said Exciminiano and Menk may suit up but Manuel is doubtful. Even if Exciminiano is available, it’s not likely Racal will be displaced as a starter. Before Game 4, he averaged 1.0 point and 7.0 minutes. In Game 4, he compiled 7 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists in 19:56 minutes. In Game 5, Racal was back in the starting lineup and delivered 5 points and 3 boards without a turnover in 34:16 minutes. Because of Racal’s exposure to coach Aldin Ayo’s all-court pressure style at Letran, he’s a fit for Compton’s system. More than his offense, Racal contributes in defense. Surprisingly, he had the most minutes of any Alaska local in Game 5, even more than Abueva.
“Ping and Eric will be a decision on game day though I’m hopeful they’ll be OK,” said Compton. “Not sure yet if I can use any of those guys but it looks tough for Vic to be ready at all. I hope we can sustain that (defense in Game 5). I know coach Yeng (Guiao) will have some good adjustments and we’ll just have to respond as we see them in Game 6.”
Guiao was scheduled to leave for London to celebrate his daughter Cecille’s graduation with a Master’s degree in International Relations at Cambridge University last Saturday. He would’ve left with wife Jenny if only Rain Or Shine won Game 4 to sweep the Finals. But now, the Painters have lost two in a row and Guiao has cancelled plans to fly to concentrate on clinching the title for Rain Or Shine tonight.
Mahindra head of basketball operations Bobby Rosales said Guiao’s sacrifice is laudable. “The dedication and commitment of coach Yeng to his work is so admirable,” said Rosales. “It is said that he will forego his foreign trip to attend his daughter’s graduation just to finish his work as coach in the championship series. Win or lose, coach Yeng is a champion to me.”