Rainy season just around the corner
The frequent occurrence of thunderstorms in some parts of the country, including Metro Manila, indicates the rainy season is coming, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said yesterday.
Anthony Lucero, officer-in-charge of the PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said the rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon is expected between late May and mid-June.
“At this time of the year, yes, it’s an
indication that the rainy season is approaching,” Lucero said, referring to the occurrence of thunderstorms.
He said they expect a normal arrival of the southwest monsoon despite the prevailing El Niño phenomenon.
PAGASA expects El Niño to end in July.
Lucero noted the rainy season started late last year due to El Niño. The weather bureau officially declared the start of the wet season on June 23, 2015.
He also said the occurrence of a tropical cyclone could trigger the onset of the rain- producing southwest monsoon.
The rainy season normally sets in during the last week of May or first week of June. Three PAGASA stations must record at least 25 millimeters of rainfall for three consecutive days and the southwest monsoon must be the dominant wind system in the country before the state weather bureau can declare the onset of the rainy season.
Lucero earlier said La Niña could follow the El Niño event this year.
La Niña refers to the abnormal cooling in the sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific. Unlike El Niño that brings below normal rainfall, La Niña is the opposite, characterized by excessive rainfall.
Lucero, however, said even if La Niña forms during the southwest monsoon, its impact will be felt in the last quarter of the year until early 2017.
“We don’t expect the southwest monsoon to be that intense,” he stressed.
The La Niña episode, however, may enhance the northeast monsoon, which may bring intense rains over the country particularly over the eastern section.
The last time the Philippines experienced a La Niña was in 2012 when some parts of the country, including Metro Manila, were hit by massive flooding due to days of intense rains brought by the southwest monsoon.