El Niño felt until yearend – Pagasa

CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY – The El Niño phenomenon marked by the unusually long dry spell will still be felt until the last quarter of the year even as La Niña’s presence will be experienced all over the country, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

PAGASA climate specialist Joseph Basconcillo said the El Niño is on the decline as normal weather conditions may be experienced during the May-June-July season.

“El Niño is in decaying stage,” Basconcillo said, citing the global advisory from various climate agencies.

“The current El Niño continues to weaken in the tropical Pacific. Majority of climate models suggest that El Niño is in its decaying stage, returning to ENSOneutral condition by mid-2016,” PAGASA said.

ENSO refers to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, an irregular periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean affecting much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase is known as the El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña.

Meanwhile, PAGASA said the possibility of a developing La Niña is favored during the second half of 2016.

“With this current state, La Niña watch is now in effect. A La Niña event is characterized by persistent cooler than average sea surface temperature anomalies (below -0.5 degrees Celsius) over the tropical Pacific,” the weather bureau said.

From this month up to July, PAGASA has predicted more rains as local thunderstorms, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), low-pressure areas, tropical cyclones and other factors will be coming in.

Tropical cyclones, ITCZ and lowpressure areas are also expected in the August-September season, it said.

In spite of the prospect of heavy rains in the later part of the year, Basconcillo said traces of El Niño would still be felt in the next few months.

“El Niño will still have a lingering effect,” he said.

Basconcillo said local governments must now prepare for the onset of La Niña to mitigate its impact to communities.