The Spratly problem is not black or white

With news that Secretary Rafael Alunan would assist former President Fidel Ramos in initiating talks with China I hope they will be able to synchronize their different approaches. So far, what I know of Secretary Alunan is that he was somewhat of a hawk at first but I think he has come down to take a more moderate view. The talks will have to be reconciliatory. This was the approach taken by Deng Xiaoping and has since been called the Deng Xiaoping formula. He did not say that the Philippines should give up its claims. The approach he envisioned was for trade and development for the time being.

As far as I know he said let the second generation deal with the issue of ownership. For the moment China and the Philippines should work out how they can work together as it did between Vietnam. But at that time we had former President Noynoy who had no idea what diplomacy could accomplish.

But now we have a President who understands that more things are wrought better by diplomacy than we would of war-mongering. The most recent misuse of good relations was so necessary for living in one neighborhood, the arbitral decision that many legal experts have described as uncalled for soured Chinese-Philippines relations. It was more a Western approach than it was an Eastern one.

As one Chinese ambassador told me, the Westerners will never understand how Easterners relate to their neighbors. It is in their culture to be friendly with their neighbors. Remember that the Philippines was a former US colony and we had a former president who could not think what was good for himself or the neighborhood. It was bad form to have filed the suit against a neighbor. No matter what Westerners regard as “the rule of law” the fact is that it was not the way of the East. Hence we had a clash between our Eastern culture and the dictates of former Western colonizer. It will take time to unravel.

Filipino leaders could have found a more pleasant and effective way dealing with the problem, like returning to discussing the Deng Xaioping formula and make it work. As it was, there is a whale of a difference between filing suit in an international court instead of working it out between themselves. And worse, it was not what it claimed to be. It was not even a UN court as alleged.

According to an article by Joshua Kurlantzick Duterte’s policies are beginning to take shape. “Some of the president’s likely domestic and foreign policies have become clearer.”

“The new president-elect of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, came into office without a clear policy platform.

“On the campaign trail, Duterte had vowed to get tough on crime, duplicating his efforts as mayor of Davao on a national level. He had made vague promises of changing the Philippines’ political system to reduce the power of entrenched elites, and he had offered contradictory, sometimes confusing statements on the Philippines’ major security challenges — the ongoing threat of militant groups in the southern Philippines, and the growing contest with China over control of disputed parts of the South China Sea has changed,“Kurlantzick said.

“Since his election in early May, Duterte’s plans for his six-year presidential term have become clearer. The first president to have come from the southern Philippines (Duterte was not born in Mindanao, but he served as mayor of Davao for decades), Duterte clearly intends to make ending the decades-long wars with southern insurgents and communist militants a centerpiece of his administration.

“He also clearly sees a need for a dramatic decentralization of power away from Manila, both to reduce the power of elites and to end insurgencies in the south. The decentralization of political and economic power in Indonesia since 1998 is an obvious inspiration for Duterte, according to several of his advisors; before the end of the Suharto regime, Indonesia was one of the most centralized states in the region. Today, Indonesia is one of the most federalized states in Southeast Asia, and other countries in the region, like Myanmar, also are looking at Indonesia as a potential model of decentralization.”

An article from Wall Street Journal said that Duterte intends to change the Constitution to transform the Philippines into a more federal country, proposing a national referendum for these constitutional change by 2019. Duterte will confront significant hurdles; as the Journal notes, previous Philippine presidents have not been able to push through constitutional changes. Still, the idea of decentralization makes real sense in such a large and diverse country, and decentralization has been effective in Indonesia in fostering political engagement and promoting economic competitiveness.“

As far as I know former President Ramos is not sold on federalism.

As for Duterte “he has said he intends to continue many of the Aquino administration’s economic policies, which should be reassuring to domestic and foreign investors. The Duterte administration, however, hopes to shift the Philippines’ economy in a way that brings broader growth.“

“More interesting is how Duterte has begun to offer some clarity about his policies on the South China Sea. During the campaign he often offered an olive branch to Beijing, suggesting he would break from the Aquino administration’s tough rhetorical approach and increasing military buildup.”

But there is little evidence that Duterte is going to completely break from Aquino’s policies. He has said that he will not rely on the United States for long-term security guarantees, and that his administration would be open to direct talks with Beijing about disputed areas, but he also has stated that the Philippines is not going to give up its rights to Scarborough Shoal. He also has not pulled back from the Philippines’ case before international arbitration in The Hague, as some of his critics suggested he might. He does not see talking with China as a black and white affair.

I think it will be more of shades of gray when it is needed. I don’t know if Ramos or Alunan will be up to that subtle approach to diplomacy.

Joshua Kurlantzick is a fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. This post appears courtesy of CFR.org.