Too close to call
Barangay Ginebra could’ve easily gone up, 2-0, over Meralco in their PBA Governors Cup best-of-seven championship series but even as coach Tim Cone’s squad led most of the way in Games 1 and 2, the Bolts proved they’re not about to hand the title on a silver platter.
Meralco drew first blood, taking the series opener via a 114109 overtime decision last Friday. Then, Ginebra wo n , 82-79, in Game 2 last Sunday to knot the count, 1- 1. Game 3 is set at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tomorrow night with the survivor only two wins away from clinching the crown.
In Game 1, Ginebra led by 16 points and was in the driver’s seat for 34:08 minutes. There were seven lead changes and seven ties, including one that sent it into extension. In Game 2, Ginebra was ahead by 15 points and showed the way for 34:35 minutes with 13 lead changes
and seven deadlocks. Despite Ginebra’s domination, Meralco prevailed in Game 1 and lost by only three in Game 2. That’s how close the series has been.
Entering the finals, Ginebra was No. 1 in the league in defense, allowing only 95.7 points. The stats clearly indicate that if Ginebra is able to limit opponents to 95 or less, the probability is the Barangay wins. If not, the probability is the Barangay loses. That’s exactly how Games 1 and 2 went. Ginebra gave up 114 points in Game 1 and lost but surrendered only 79 in Game 2 and won.
For Meralco, it’s either a power surge or a power outage. If the power is on full blast, the Bolts will strike like lightning. If the lines are down, Meralco will flicker out. Import Allen Durham is Meralco’s voltage regulator. Durham was virtually unstoppable with 46 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in Game 1. In contrast, Ginebra’s Justin Brownlee took the day off with a sub-par performance of 17 points, eight rebounds and four assists.
Cone figured the way to beat Meralco isn’t to engage the Bolts in a shootout but to dig deep in the trenches and force a grind-itout battle of attrition. Ginebra’s adjustment in Game 2 focused on putting the cuffs on Durham. A platoon of defenders held Durham to 22 points or 24 less than what he fired in Game 1 and forced seven turnovers. Durham never took a free throw because Ginebra blunted his aggressiveness and compromised his sweet spot. Brownlee rebounded from an anemic showing in Game 1 to collect 32 points, 12 boards and three dimes in Game 2. More importantly, it was the second straight game where Brownlee had no turnovers.
In Game 3, it’s Meralco coach Norman Black’s turn to adjust. He’ll want to create more high percentage scoring situations for Durham which means there may be more back- to- the- basket low post plays than face-up perimeter sniping. In this way, Durham will get more chances to go to the line.
Black hasn’t started Jimmy Alapag in the finals. He opened with Jonathan Uyloan at point guard in Game 1 then Baser Amer in Game 2. Another tweak was starting Bryan Faundo in Game 2 in Reynel Hugnatan’s place. His constant starters are Chris Newsome, Cliff Hodge and Durham. Black has used a “big” lineup in trying to offset Cone’s “small ball” where L. A. Tenorio, Scottie Thompson and Sol Mercado are the Ginebra starters.
But while Ginebra has deployed a speedy three-guard formation, Cone’s approach is to slow it down and turn the series into a defensive war. In the finals, Ginebra is averaging only four fastbreak points compared to Meralco’s 12.5.
Control of the boards is critical as the team with more rebounds won Games 1 and 2. More rebounds, particularly on the offensive glass, lead to more possessions and more field goal attempts. In Game 1, Meralco had more rebounds, 52-50, more second chance points, 27-7 and more field goal attempts, 94-87. In Game 2, Ginebra had more rebounds, 49-45, more second chance points, 21-2 and more field goal attempts, 82-74. It’s no wonder that Meralco won Game 1 and Ginebra took Game 2.
What could tilt the balance either way is the return of Jared Dillinger to Meralco and Chris Ellis to Ginebra. Both are impact players who’re dealing with hamstring issues. Their status is day-to-day, meaning they could be back on the court sooner than later. Dillinger has sat out the last four Meralco games while Ellis has missed the last 13 Ginebra outings.
The reason why the finals is a 50-50 affair is because Cone and Black know how to bring out the best in their players. Cone is like a Phil Jackson in that he operates out of a system that demands discipline, teamwork and cooperation. Black is like a Tyronn Lue in the way he creates mismatches and exploits situations. From all indications, the series could go the distance with more and more fans packing the Big Dome. The attendance was 14,522 in Game 1 and 18,287 in Game 2. As the series nears its climax, tickets will be increasingly difficult to score.