Who will be good for us: The lady or the Trump?

The latest polls clearly show that Hillary Clinton is pulling away from Donald Trump, with the so-called “battleground states” especially Florida projected to swing for the lady. On the other hand, the decline in Donald’s popularity was largely attributed to the release of a 2005 recording of “the Trump” making disparaging comments about women and how someone like him can do anything he wants. So now, Republican Party mates are having second thoughts about supporting their candidate, concentrating instead on their own survival as the majority in Congress.

The winner in the November 8 US presidential elections will undoubtedly have an impact on the lives of the four million US-based Filipinos and consequently, US-Philippine relations. A Trump win would be bad for the Philippines. He said he will put an immigration ban on countries like the Philippines because of its “history of terrorism.” The BPO industry could also be affected with his promise to “bring jobs back to Americans.” In terms of security, Trump would focus more on the ISIS threat and less on the Asia Pacific region – even saying he will make allies like the Philippines pay up for security upkeep. With the way both President Duterte and Donald Trump sound, you can already see a potential “fistfight.”

A Hillary Clinton win, on the other hand would be good for the Philippines for varying reasons. Having visited the country several times – both as First Lady and State Secretary – she has developed strong connections with Filipinos. By the way, outgoing US Ambassador to the Philippines Philip Goldberg, a high-ranking career diplomat, is very close to Hilary Clinton, having worked with her for many years. Philip is expected to be working closely with Clinton if and when she wins.

Hillary was extremely supportive of former Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario’s elevation of our maritime dispute with China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague – resulting in a landmark decision that effectively reduced China’s nine-dash claims over almost the whole of the South China Sea as nothing but a sham. Acknowledged as the major architect of the “pivot to Asia” policy adopted by the administration of US president Barack Obama, Hillary is well versed on the security situation in Asia Pacific and believes in the need to maintain freedom of navigation.

Relations between the US and the Philippines were at their highest point during Hillary Clinton’s tenure as State Secretary, pushing for EDCA and strongly reaffirming our Mutual Defense Treaty. Unfortunately for now, a Clinton presidency would be very sticky and challenging for the Duterte administration. We have seen her strong reaction to the Obama “cursing” that resulted in the last-minute cancellation of a scheduled bilateral meeting between Duterte and Obama at the ASEAN summit in Laos. Hillary is very supportive of women’s rights, and she may not look too kindly on the Duterte administration due to perceptions that it has a cavalier attitude when it comes to women.

During the 4th Annual Women in the World Summit in 2013, Hillary famously said that “women’s rights are still human rights,” and that recognizing this is “the unfinished business of the 21st century.” Under a Clinton presidency, the “slogan” may likely turn into official policy.

President Duterte’s unrelenting tirade against the US and his dangling of the “China card” signals a shift in Philippine diplomatic policy. Think tanks see his upcoming four-day trip to China this week as the proverbial “crossing of the Rubicon (bridge) over the Yangtze River” as far as the relationship with the US is concerned. The outcome of this China trip will determine largely how far President Duterte wants to go in moving further away from the US-Philippine alliance. He will most likely get the $3 billion funding that was promised but in classic Chinese fashion – it will not come for free. Sadly, this trip may result in the giving away of our historic win before the Permanent Court of Arbitration on our territorial West Philippine Sea claim.

Nobody is arguing against the Philippines’ right to set a new foreign policy and making friends with other nations. But the key is sensible diplomacy, like the old saying coined by the late Senate President Eulogio “Amang” Rodriguez: “Politics is addition, not subtraction.”

The president’s pronouncements that he will end joint US-Phil navy patrols through the South China Sea is already causing jittery concern among ASEAN countries.

Let’s face it, the relationship between the Philippines and the United States is not exactly good at the moment. At the very least, it is “fragile.” Unless he has direct access to the President, the next Philippine Ambassador to Washington will have a tough job. He needs to make good sense of our relationship with the United States. The Philippine Ambassador may end up spending his time being summoned by the US State Department explaining what was meant by this or that statement – plus the “expletives” that may have accompanied it. He has to perform a delicate balance of maintaining the relationship that has been in place for 70 years – making sure this would not be unilaterally discarded because of “unnecessary” harsh words.

The president has repeatedly asserted that the main purpose of his presidency is to ensure the survival of our country, with the latest survey showing him with an 86 percent approval rating. But he must also remember that exactly the same percentage indicated approval for EDCA and the continued presence of American troops in the country, underscored by the overwhelming peopleto-people relationship established between Filipinos and Americans for so many decades.

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