Saving ties

SEATTLE – He didn’t get the Order of Sikatuna, but Philip Goldberg leaves his Manila posting today with something better. “I am touched by the heartwarming sendoff I have received from Filipinos,” he told me in a phone call from Manila yesterday. “I’m sad to be leaving at a time of great uncertainty, but I think the relations will endure.”

To make up for the churlish denial of what irreverent journalists call the “Sick Tuna” award, the House of Representatives conferred a special recognition on Goldberg. The private sector also feted the US ambassador in his final weeks here.

The warm sendoff is testament not only to Goldberg’s character and efficiency in his posting, but also to the strong bonds between the two countries that one president alone cannot break. If the surveys are any indication, in sending Rodrigo Duterte to Malacañang by a landslide, the majority of Filipinos (except for the communists and Islamic extremists) did not bargain for a “separation” from the US.

If Manila and Washington want to salvage their alliance, both sides should pause, take a deep breath, assess the cause and impact of the damage, and then move to prevent the wound from becoming deeper. President Duterte knows exactly what is making the US agitated: executing drug personalities without bothering to even put up a pretense of according them due process. And executing 3,700 drug suspects in four months could constitute a crime against humanity.

Du30 has made it abundantly clear that he doesn’t give a s**t (his words) about human rights bleeding hearts in the US, the EU or wherever they may be found. The killings will continue until the last drug suspect is dead, Du30 has vowed.

The US, for its part, should understand what brings out the worst in Rude Rody. Du30 was simmering down after that incoherent announcement in Beijing of his “separation” from Uncle Sam, when here comes the top US diplomat in the East Asia-Pacific, openly criticizing the Philippine President in his own land.

Du30’s comments, Daniel Russel told the press, were creating uncertainty in the business community. Russel, of course, was just being candid, honest and American – their officials do it everywhere. But it may be useful for Washington to learn some lessons in dealing with this President – that is, if the US wants to save the alliance.

Even before Duterte was persuaded by Fidel Ramos to run for president last year, the Americans were already aware that Du30 was no fan of Uncle Sam.

When a US State Department official told the Washington press that President Barack Obama would not pull any punches in raising the human rights situation during his meeting with Duterte on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, Du30 promptly scrapped the meeting (which Manila had requested). The last thing this President wants is a lecture from an American counterpart.

Unable or unwilling to learn a lesson, here comes Russel doing exactly what Du30 detests – to be openly criticized, and not even by his US counterpart, but by an assistant secretary.

Not surprisingly, Du30’s Pavlovian reaction was, Yankee go home. Some 1.2 million Filipinos stand to lose their jobs if American business process outsourcing operators call President Duterte’s bluff and leave the Philippines.

The BPOs are apart from the American companies providing Filipino jobs in semiconductors, food processing, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and a wide range of other areas.

And this is also apart from the hundreds of thousands of Filipino passport holders working in the United States who may see their jobs threatened by a falling-out between the long-term allies.

Rude Rody must remember that the Philippines is competing in a tough neighborhood for foreign direct investment. Even before he came along, the Philippines already had the lowest level of FDI among the five founding members of ASEAN.

For three decades FDI was soaked up by the top destination in Asia: China. Now that labor and other costs have gone up, countries such as Japan have adopted a “Chinaplus-one” investment strategy in the region. Japan picked the Philippines as an alternative investment destination. But several other countries have picked Vietnam and are finding Cambodia and even Myanmar attractive.

The Philippines is still more competitive than Cambodia and Myanmar, thanks mainly to skilled workers. Du30’s 10- point socioeconomic agenda also buoyed business confidence at the start. Now everything is in danger of coming undone. The Americans may also find it useful to understand the mindset of Du30. Obama’s pivot to Asia is also coming undone due to Du30’s pique.

European officials have visited Manila in recent weeks, to assess the human rights situation, and see if Rude Rody means what he says when he tells the European Union to “go to hell.” They are concerned, sure, but the Europeans keep their heads down and their mouths shut, avoiding the press and reporting quietly to their home offices.

Several other Asian countries are also concerned about recent developments in the Philippines, mainly about the potential for instability, which is always bad for business. But they also know enough to course their concerns through back channels, away from the controversy-seeking press. Du30, for his part, may want to remember the roots of American “interference” in Philippine internal affairs. He can attribute it to force of habit, on both sides.

Until fairly recently, Filipinos were the ones who asked Washington to intervene directly in Philippine affairs. Ferdinand Marcos held on to power with the support of Washington, which let go of its durable ally only when people power made his ouster inevitable.

Corazon Aquino repeatedly asked Washington for help during all the coup attempts in her presidency. And the coup plotters also sounded out the Americans for support. The US embassy was always among the first to know when a coup plot was seriously brewing in Manila. This went on through the presidency of GMA.

Noynoy Aquino’s administration was clearly pro-American so it’s hard to tell if Uncle Sam was interfering under his watch or merely engaging actively with a treaty ally.

Now Du30 says he is recalibrating ties. Fortunately, while American businessmen are concerned about Du30, they are even more concerned about who might become their next president. And there seems to be a prevailing sentiment at this point that bilateral ties will endure and survive Duterte.

But in the next six years, millions of Filipinos could lose their jobs if foreign businesses pack up and relocate to where they are welcome.

We’re hurtling toward a lose-lose situation for both the Philippines and the US, but it can still be reversed. Thinking before talking can be a good start.