Nash out to defy odds

It won’t be easy for defending UAAP senior men’s basketball champion FEU to climb back to the finals but for departing coach Nash Racela, there’s extra motivation to get the job done. Racela is moving out of the Tamaraws’ den at the end of the season to take over as TNT KaTropa head coach in the PBA. There’s an existing PBA exclusivity rule on head coaches so Racela isn’t allowed to call the shots for both TNT and FEU. He’ll slide down to a consultant’s role with FEU next campaign.

Meanwhile, there’s unfinished business at hand. Racela’s not done with the UAAP. The Tams finished the double-round eliminations with a 9- 5 record, good for third place in the totem pole. In the Final Four, they’re up against No. 2 Ateneo ( 10- 4) with the Blue Eagles enjoying a twice- to- beat advantage. For FEU to advance to the finals, the Tams must defeat Ateneo twice in a row. They’ll need to survive two consecutive do- or- die games for the right to face La Salle in the best- of-three championship series. The first clash is set at the Mall of Asia Arena tomorrow. If Ateneo wins, there will be a winner- take- all rematch. If FEU prevails, the Eagles fly home to roost.

For sure, the outlook isn’t bright for Racela. First, FEU is on a mild skid. The Tams have lost three of their last four assignments and they barely beat UE, 64- 61, to close out the elims. Second, Ateneo is on a hot streak, coming off six straight wins, including an 8371 decision over La Salle to hand the Archers their only setback this season. Ateneo coach Tab Baldwin has transformed the Eagles into a cohesive unit that thrives in solid team play. Not a single Eagle is averaging in double figure points, a testament that Baldwin’s equal opportunity system works.

**** Third, FEU is now without Mac Belo, Mike Tolomia, Russel Escoto and Roger Pogoy who all played key roles in last season’s title surge. Filling the vacuum has been a challenge for the Tams. And fourth, FEU couldn’t beat Ateneo in two previous meetings. The Eagles downed the Tams, 76- 71, last Sept. 14 and repeated, 74- 59, last Nov. 9. So it’s not likely that FEU can repulse Ateneo twice in the playoffs after failing to unfeather the Eagles twice in the elims. Still, if there’s any team with a big chance to topple Ateneo, it’s FEU.

Both FEU and Ateneo are defense-minded which means when they play, the games are expected to be low-scoring. If that’s the trend, then the scores of both teams shouldn’t be too far away from each other, opening up the possibility of an upset down the stretch. The aberration was Ateneo’s 15-point win in the second round. The Tams were limited to 59 points while the Eagles went on a rampage.

FEU leads the UAAP in least points given up, 65.1. Ateneo is No. 1 in least field goal percentage allowed, 34.7. Those numbers reflect their orientation. The Tams’ size gives them the edge in rebounding where they’re No. 2 in the league, 46.8 a game, and in second chance points, also No. 2, 11.9. The Eagles are No. 2 in assists, 15.1 and No. 3 in field goal percentage, 40.7, showing their efficiency in finding the open man for the high percentage shot. Neither team is explosive in transition as FEU and Ateneo are at the bottom of the standings in fastbreak points, 6.2. The Tams like to grind it out with their size and physical defense. Ateneo plays the precision, breakdown half-court game but can also get out on the open court with its athletic players if the opportunity comes.

**** FEU center Prince Orizu should dominate the interior with Ateneo’s Chibueze Ikeh not as imposing. Raymar Jose, averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds, will lead the Tams charge but needs outside artillery support to establish his space at the blocks. Jojo Trinidad, Axel Inigo, Wendell Comboy and Monbert Arong will be called on to knock down shots from the perimeter. In tomorrow’s duel, FEU must set the tone early with its physical defense so Ron Dennison has to make his presence felt in laying the ground rules.

The Eagles can’t be intimidated by the Tams. They’ve got to stay composed and play their style. Ateneo is No. 1 in the league in bench points, 38.6, so depth is something that Baldwin will throw at FEU when it comes to matching up second units. Thirdy Ravena, Adrian Wong, Mike and Matt Nieto, Aaron Black, Isaac Go, Vince Tolentino, Ikeh, Raffy Verano, Anton Asistio and Jolo Mendoza play different roles in Baldwin’s scheme of things and they’re all vital pieces. What makes Ateneo a serious title contender is the Eagles’ commitment to play within Baldwin’s system. The Eagles are disciplined, hard-working and selfless – attributes that explain why Ateneo is on a six- game winning streak.

Baldwin and Racela have worked together with Gilas so they know each other well. They’ll anticipate adjustments so the coach that is more predictable will be at a disadvantage. What could spell the difference is how the players respond to situations as they unfold on the floor. It’ll be a tactical game. FEU will try to unsettle Ateneo with its rugged, physical and intimidating defense while the Eagles hope to use their athleticism, bench and fluid teamwork to clinch a finals slot without giving the Tams a second chance.