Give China all Phl areas it’s claiming
TO BE consistent in his supine position, President Rodrigo Duterte might as well formally abandon Philippine rights over maritime areas being claimed by China and renounce the favorable UNCLOS arbitration ruling in The Hague last July on these disputes.
After winning the arbitration case and keeping alive the claims over isles, shoals, reefs and other areas in Philippine waters, it drains the spirit to hear the Duterte administration say it will not protest the Chinese buildup and militarization of the sites.
The Philippines may be militarily inferior to China, but weakness is not enough reason for its tough-talking leaders to lower their voice, and rationalize their compromising national dignity by citing Beijing’s promise to bring in trade, investments and infrastructure.
Traveling with President Duterte in Singapore, Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. explained the Philippines’ seeming helplessness:
“We cannot, we cannot stop China at this point in time and saying ‘do not put that up’ – we will continue to pursue peaceful means at which all of this can be prevented.”
What “peaceful means” is Yasay talking about in the midst of China’s building of militarized islands on areas long claimed by the Philippines? He can talk that way probably because his American family is safely settled in the United States.
Yasay and President Duterte also said the administration will set aside in the meantime the ruling of the UNCLOS arbitral court invalidating Beijing’s claims to most of the South China Sea, so as not to impose on Beijing.
With the aid of photographs of the buildup by China, a US think tank reported this week that the Chinese have installed anti-aircraft and anti-missile weapons on the new artificial islands.
Duterte, who claimed to have made new friends in communist China, could only look on as the Chinese gobbled up strategic areas claimed by the Philippines and already awarded to it by the arbitral court.
The situation has put Duterte on the spot, having announced friendly relations with Beijing sealed by promises of assistance in infrastructure, economic development and the arming of Filipino soldiers.
The taking over of Republican Donald Trump on Jan. 20 as the 45th US president may force Duterte to make some policy adjustments in his triangular relationship with Washington and Beijing.
Having fallen for Beijing’s overtures, Duterte has started to move away noisily from the old lover, the US, in anticipation of gifts of upgraded trade and investments tentatively assigned a value of $24 billion.
Duterte to adjust to Trump admin
WITH his claim after a singular seven-minute call of having found in the incoming US President a political soulmate, Duterte may have to recalculate and soon make some major adjustments in the ménage à trois without alienating either or both partners.
Trump has not indicated any fondness for China in a manner similar to how he talks of Russia and its president Vladimir Putin, another world leader whose eye Duterte has been trying to catch.
Among other moves, Trump has threatened to force a return to the US of American firms located in China to end the distorted pricing of goods manufactured in China and the outflow of US jobs to foreign locations made attractive by cheap labor.
Showing his disdain for Beijing, Trump even made the startling claim that Climate Change, a global threat taken up in international forums, is an invention of China. Duterte has been struck by his new friend’s arguments.
President Barack Obama has only about three weeks left in the White House, but this has not prevented the US from adding to the pressure on this “colorful” politician who had called him names over human rights issues.
The Millennium Challenge Corp., a US government aid agency, has deferred till at least March 2017 a decision to renew the development assistance package for the Philippines “subject to a further review of concerns around rule of law and civil liberties.”
The Philippines completed last May a five- year $434-million poverty-reduction program that was to be extended before yearend, but there have been concerns in the US about Duterte’s anti-narcotics drive that has killed almost 6,000 suspected drug users.
Arriving Saturday in Davao from a visit to Singapore, Duterte belittled the US aid deferment, even raising the ante. He said:
“I understand that we have been stricken out of the Millennium Challenge. Well, good, I welcome it. We can survive without American money.
“But you know, America, you might also be put to notice. Prepare to leave the Philippines, prepare for the eventual repeal or the abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement. (He was referring to a 1998 VFA allowing temporary US forces in the Philippines.)
“You know, tit for tat ... if you can do this, so (can) we. It ain’t a one-way traffic… Bye-bye America.”
Being merely an executive agreement, the President may be able to abrogate the VFA after due notice to his US counterpart. It is not to be a unilateral or abrupt termination.
If, to raise the ante, Duterte targets the older Phl-US Mutual Defense Treaty (with emphasis on its being a treaty), theoretically he would have a more difficult time terminating it without the concurrence of the Senate that had ratified it.
From where we sit, however, we doubt if Duterte will move for the total cutting of military and economic ties with the US, which still enjoys popular approval by Filipinos compared to China as a partner.
Our hunch is that Duterte will just try to play Beijing against Washington with an eye to gaining concessions from both. We expect the US to learn soon enough how to handle the bluster of Duterte and move accordingly.