US newspaper says coup vs Duterte possible

WASHINGTON – The future of the once- solid USPhilippine defense alliance is uncertain as President Duterte cozies up to China and a coup may be on the horizon, The

Washington Times reported. Manila has become one of the murder capitals of the world under Duterte’s watch, the conservative newspaper said in a three-part series on US-Phl relations by staff writer Guy Taylor.

The worrying prospect is if Duterte allows access rights to Chinese military vessels or some kind of air and sea access to Philippine airstrips and ports, John Blaxland, a former Australian military intelligence official who now teaches at the Australian National University, told the Times.

“The question is will the Philippine military, which is pro- American and already wary of Mr. Duterte’s flirtation with China, allow that, and whether a Trump presidency would perhaps condone a coup to overthrow Duterte if things turn so drastic,” Blaxland said.

“We’ve got to put this on the table,” he said. “We frankly don’t know what the Trump presidency’s policy will be toward Southeast Asia.”

The US and China are deeply intertwined economically and many analysts here believe Washington will do everything possible to try to keep the bilateral relationship on a peaceful and cooperative basis.

But there are points of friction, including China’s expansion of military facilities on artificial islands it built in the South China Sea that is also claimed in parts by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

US president-elect Donald Trump has said that what China is doing in the South China Sea violates international law, adding “we are going to restore our naval power and when we assert our freedomof-navigation rights like every power in the world, we will do it appropriately. There will be no ambiguity about it.”

The Times quoted analysts saying the future of US-Philippines relations, and quite possibly of America’s overall footprint in the region, now hinges on a huge unknown: will Trump get along or clash with his equally unpredictable Filipino counterpart.

When Duterte telephoned Trump in December to congratulate him on his election victory, the Filipino leader said Trump wished him success in his campaign against the drug problem and invited him to the White House.

But Trump’s transition team hasn’t confirmed the anti-drug endorsement or the invitation.

Under former president Benigno Aquino III, ties with the US were strong but soured when Duterte took office on June 30 and launched his war against drug pushers and users which to date has resulted in over 6,000 people killed.

Duterte has insulted outgoing US President Barack Obama for interfering in the country’s internal affairs by condemning extrajudicial killings in the drug war. He has also started lessening military dependence on the United States and is looking to China and Russia as allies.

The Times’ Taylor, who visited Manila for his article, quoted a spokesman for the US Navy 7th Fleet as saying there has been no disruption in the clearance process for visiting US Navy ships to the Philippines. But other Navy officials who spoke with the newspaper said nerves are on edge over Duterte’s negative posturing toward Washington.

In his second installment, Taylor said there is a bipartisan move in the US Senate to scrutinize and perhaps cut off the $32 million the State Department sends annually to aid Philippine security forces in light of “horrific violations of basic human rights” that have come with Duterte’s election.

It said according to latest data from the Philippine National Police, 6,206 people have been killed in the war on drugs since July 1.

Of these 2,157 were suspected drug pushers/addicts killed in police operations as of Dec. 27 while 4,049 were victims of extrajudicial or vigilante-style killings.

The Times said the hard-line populist Filipino president has succeeded in turning Manila into one of the murder capitals of the world by authorizing the police and an array of unknown accomplices to gun down at point- blank range anyone suspected of dealing or using drugs.

In its final series on Thursday the Times interviewed elder statesman, former president Fidel Ramos, who suggested a Trump visit to the Philippines may be needed to downgrade Duterte’s threat to neutralize the 70-year-old US-Phl defense alliance and shore up Washington’s troubled ties with one of the linchpins of its regional security network.

Ramos told the Times that he and other former high-level military officials have made it clear to Duterte that he should “maintain our military alliance with the US and pursue not an independent foreign policy but an interdependent foreign policy.”