Quo Vadis Asean? Asean at 50

It is a historic moment in ASEAN’s existence as it celebrates its 50th anniversary. As chair, this gives President Duterte a historic opportunity to influence the future direction of ASEAN into the next half century amidst unprecedented and profound changes in the global and regional environment which tests ASEAN’s principles, cohesion, institutions and vitality. The rise of populist nationalism, as exemplified by Brexit, the election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States, and the growth in rightist populist politics in Europe and elsewhere have challenged the long held notion of multilateralism that has been responsible for global economic prosperity and relative peace in the last six decades since World War II. Of more immediate concern is China’s rise as a global economic power and its growing assertiveness in projecting its world view – particularly in the South China Sea region – which looms large in how the Philippines and ASEAN define their future relations with her. Concerns about whether the United States will maintain its historic role as peace maker in the region adds further complications.

The ASEAN-Institute of International and Strategic Studies (ASEAN-ISIS), a consortium of ASEAN think tanks led by Indonesia’s Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS), identified the following key challenges to ASEAN in a paper released early this year: • Uncertainties in the Global Strategic Environment: The post-Cold War order has come to a point where its foundations have truly been eroded. There is now an unprecedented risk of tensions between the major powers, which could test ASEAN’s centrality and create pressures within ASEAN-led mechanisms such as the EAS, the ARF and the ADMM Plus.

• A Challenging Economic Outlook: The global growth in protectionist sentiments will pose a major challenge for the export-oriented economies of Southeast Asia. At the same time, innovations in automation will increasingly complicate efforts to generate jobs for the region’s growing population.

• Social Cohesion: Southeast Asia’s growing middle class will expect ever-higher levels of governance, particularly in the delivery of public goods and services. At the same time, an increasingly interconnected world will also lead to the growth of identity politics.

• Adapting to Climate Change: Southeast Asia is especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change and natural disasters. ASEAN needs to be prepared for the real possibility that global mitigation efforts are not sufficient. Efforts to adapt to the effects of climate change and disasters will increasingly demand greater coordination and the pooling of resources.

• Cyberspace: As digital connectivity becomes more pervasive in ASEAN, so will the threats arising from cyberattacks to critical infrastructure and services. The transboundary nature of cyberspace will pose a unique challenge to traditional models of governance.

Now more than ever, the Philippines can benefit from ASEAN’s collective strength to respond to these challenges. But ASEAN needs to act urgently, collectively and decisively in order to preserve its centrality in regional affairs and relevance in international relations. Centrality – which confers ASEAN with convening and agenda-setting powers – cannot be assumed: it needs to be earned and respected. There is growing belief that the way ASEAN is organized and operates is no longer effective in dealing with all these changes taking place at such dizzying pace. But the conversation on these issues has generally been confined to diplomats and scholars with limited input from the general stakeholders including the general public, business and the media.

It is with this in mind that the Carlos P. Romulo Foundation for Peace and Development has partnered with the ASEAN-ISIS in organizing a high level conference of business, academe, media and government officials in their private capacity on Aug. 2. The aim of the conference “ASEAN: Moving Forward” is to generate recommendations on how ASEAN can make itself a more effective vehicle for achieving regional prosperity and strengthen its role in influencing regional peace and security. From this, the organizers hope to generate momentum for multi-sectoral and pan-ASEAN advocacy with an eye towards the ASEAN Foreign Minister’s Meeting on Aug. 8 which will then feed into the ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in November and their Dialogue with the Leaders of the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

The conference will cover two sub-themes: the first aim to define the strategic challenges in the Asia-Pacific, and the second is to outline ASEAN responses to those challenges and how to strengthen its capability to deliver them. The first sub-theme, will address such issues as: the relationship among the great powers in the region involving the US, China, Japan, Russia, and India; the inevitability of China’s dominant economic and strategic influence in the region; how the world at large views ASEAN’s central role in the region; the implications to ASEAN of the rise of populism to the world order both in terms of economic growth and of strategic realignment; and the challenges in adapting to environmental changes and to disruptive technology.

The second sub-theme will develop recommendations on possible responses to these new challenges and how ASEAN can be strengthened institutionally to effectively develop and deliver these responses. The ASEAN Charter and how ASEAN operates will be reviewed from which recommendations for reforms will be developed. The role of the ASEAN private sector – business, academe and the media – in influencing these responses will also be discussed.

The ADR-Stratbase Institute will be co-organizing with us from the Philippine side. Thought Leaders from the Philippines, ASEAN and non-ASEAN will be invited as Resource Persons and participants from business, academe and the media will be drawn from the Philippines and across ASEAN and its dialogue partners. The outcome of the conference will be published on which basis further ASEAN-wide advocacy initiatives will be undertaken by all the partner institutions.

The conference is designed to be media-friendly in order to give the general public access to the views and ideas that will be developed at the conference which hopefully will generate an appreciation of ASEAN’s relevance to their daily life now and in the future and why they have a stake at its future direction. Much of what ASEAN has accomplished has been under the radar and has not generated a desired ASEAN identity as much as say the European Union which is just older by ten years than ASEAN.