Diplomacy

Just when we thought things have settled down in the Korean peninsula, Kim Jong-un fired a missile that flew cross the Japanese island of Hokkaido.

A few weeks ago, Kim threatened to fire missiles into the sea around Guam. He stepped back from that threat and the rest of East Asia heaved a sigh of relief.

Then Kim fired that missile across Japan, mainly to show displeasure over the annual war games conducted between US and South Korean forces. Sirens blared in Hokkaido after the Japanese military detected the launch. This is the first time Pyongyang fired a missile across Japan.

Tokyo is understandably agitated. The missile flew right through the anti-missile defense system put up by the Americans and the South Koreans. It went right through Japan’s own defense system. For good reason, the Japanese now feel vulnerable. Along with South Korea, Japan is a frontline state guarding against the dangerous games Kim Jong-un takes pleasure playing.

US military forces in the area are hardly reassuring. This year, four warships of the US 7th fleet either ran aground or against innocent merchant marine vessels. That surely makes Seoul and Tokyo feel like they are protected by the Keystone cops.

It is also hardly reassuring that Washington does not seem to have a clear strategy for dealing with the North Korean nuclear threat. After each missile North Korea launches, senior Washington officials scamper around like headless chickens, muttering contradictory statements.

In the days preceding the last Pyongyang missile launch, US Defense Secretary Mathis and Secretary of State Tillerson were busy making the rounds, talking about the futility of military responses and the necessity for new diplomatic initiatives to deal with North Korea. That sort of talk reassured America’s East Asian allies.

War is truly not an option. The cost is intolerable. A small, punitive military strike could lead to immediate escalation and a nuclear exchange.

Should the US decide to bomb North Korean military facilities, Pyongyang will almost certainly respond by unleashing thousands of conventional artillery pieces on Seoul. The economic and human costs of such a scenario is intolerable.

The vulnerability of Seoul to a conventional artillery attack from just across the border is such that most governments have swallowed their dislike for Pyongyang and kept the diplomatic lines open. All the leaders in this part of the world understand there is no substitute for a diplomatic solution.

Last month, after North Korea fired four missiles into the Sea of Japan, Donald Trump unleashed truly ignorant rhetoric. He warned Pyongyang of “fire and fury” and said the US military response was “locked and loaded.”

Senior American officials have since been trying to dial back Trump’s vigorous but unwise words. They were basically assuring their allies, in hushed tones and behind closed doors, that what Trump says is not policy.

Their assurances simply blew up when Trump, after the last missile launch, tweeted “talking is not the answer” when it comes to North Korea. All the past diplomatic efforts resulted only in “paying (North Korea) extortion money for 25 years.”

With a single tweet, Trump pulled the rug from under his own senior officials. He pulled the plug on the frantic diplomatic efforts of his own men meant to open a diplomatic corridor to Pyongyang.

Trump has a sordid history of macho talk displacing clear thinking. In this case, he appears engaged in warmongering against the consensus that war is not an option.

It seems to have escaped him that four American warships are on dry dock, awaiting repairs for the clumsy collisions they figured in. It seems to have escaped him that North Korea maintains a dense and redundant air defense system along with a large standing army. It seems to have escaped him that North Korea is now a nuclear power with a leader as crazy as he is, ready to pull the trigger when dared, against the better judgment of reasonable men.

It seems to have escaped Trump’s facile mind that, in the event of an unprovoked attack on North Korea, both China and Russia will probably side with their bizarre but useful ally. Both powers have said that much over the past few weeks as unbridled, warlike rhetoric from both Trump and Kim raised tensions to intolerable levels.

Trump’s unseemly tweets left leaders in East and Southeast Asia dumbfounded. Although by now habituated to Trump’s bizarre utterances, they still could not bring themselves to understand how the leader of a superpower could be as irresponsible as the American president.

Most of us in this part of the world prefer to go about our daily chores trying not to think the unthinkable. A nuclear war breaking out on the Korean peninsula is so dreadful to think about, we try to convince ourselves it will never happen.

A nuclear war breaking out will surely devastate both Koreas. Japan will not be spared from the fallout. Pyongyang’s missiles could reach Taiwan and Luzon, perhaps venturing as far out as Guam.

There are no baby steps here on the road to war. Once the firing begins, the war instantly escalates. That will bring to ruins the region that has been the source of growth for the global economy. The fallout, literally, of a nuclear war will make this part of the world a wasteland.

Trump, if he did not listen exclusively to his own voice, should have heard the Chinese leader giving everyone sage advice: we should all pull together and figure out a diplomatic way out of this escalating confrontation.