Xi – the new Mao?
The recent proposal by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to remove the two term limits of the President is really not a surprise. It has been widely theorized and speculated that this was a major political goal of Xi Jinping ever since he won a second term. This proposal has come together with moves to enshrine Xi Jinping’s Thoughts into the constitution – specifically his Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.
All these moves are reminiscent of the era of Chairman Mao Ze Dong. The term limit limitation was introduced by the Communist Party of China, then under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, to establish a form of consensus government and prevent the return of another Mao.
Xi Jinping is now expected to extend his tenure as President beyond 2023 and become the single, undisputed leader in China. This change can pose new challenges for China. Here is one analysis from Stratfor: “Balanced against Beijing’s daunting efforts to lead the country’s socio-economic transformation, the process to reshape China’s political balance and shore up Xi’s authority are no less challenging. Beyond the enormous speculation whether Xi intends to hold power indefinitely, removing term limit does not change the fact that the president can still fall from favor should circumstances change. Internal and external disruptions could easily erase the support he currently enjoys, bringing largely submerged antagonisms to the surface of intra-Communist Party politics. Moreover, Xi will have fewer excuses than his predecessors did to explain failed policies. If the Chinese economy underperforms or if a foreign policy crisis emerges – such as Taiwan – political strengths can become liabilities, leaving Xi vulnerable.”
Taiwan has the potential to be a source of increased tension between the United States and China. Recent events confirm the analysis that suggests Washington’s strategy to continue using Taiwan as a pressure point to contain Beijing.
Recently, for the first time, the United States has agreed to let Taiwan host the US-Taiwan defense industry conference in May. For the past 16 years, the conference has been held in the United States. This year, the event will be held in two parts with Taiwan and the United States hosting each separately. This means that the United States will send high ranking officials to Taiwan on an official capacity.
In late 2017, Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act into law which calls for increased defense cooperation with Taiwan, including arms sales and a feasibility study of port call exchanges. The US Congress has already introduced multiple bills that would legitimize Taiwan’s status in the international community.
Beijing has voiced bitter opposition to the new law; but, the chasm between China and the United States is already widening. Any hope for a peaceful reunification of Taiwan with mainland China is seemingly becoming more impossible.
The new focus of the US global security is not terrorism anymore but great power competition. The United States is now expected to redirect its resources, capabilities and approach to overcome the challenges that the growing confidence and abilities of China and Russia will pose.
On Jan. 19, the Pentagon released a new National Defense Strategy, the first time in ten years. The report called “...strategic competition the central challenge to US prosperity and security as Russian and Chinese military capabilities expand.” In another recent report, Nuclear Posture Review, US Defense Secretary Mattis argued “...that the United States can no longer afford a policy of nuclear arms reduction given the steady growth of the Chinese and Russian nuclear arsenals.” Another report that will soon come out – US Ballistic Defense Review – according to Stratfor – is expected to emphasize the same key points, namely that the United States should bolster its missile defences to better repel threats as strategic competition builds.
The think tank further states: “... counterterrorism was the true focus of the US security strategy, not only under the last president but also under his predecessor. Enduring conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia continue to draw the lion’s share of military deployments, resources, and focus to this day. China and Russia meanwhile have taken advantage of the United States diverted attention, making great strides in building arsenals and honing their military capabilities. In a few areas – such as anti-ship missiles, rocket artillery and ground based air defense – the two Eurasian countries nay even have surpassed the United States.
As the great power competition between Russia, China, and the United States intensifies, the emergence of disruptive weapons technologies will drive them deeper into a destabilizing arms race. While weapons technology is developing at a rapid pace, arms control treaties are either stalled or deteriorating.
The deterioration of arms control treaties and the rise of disruptive weapons technology – like hypersonic missiles and low yield nuclear warheads – could erode global stability by staring a new arms race among the great powers. This could lead into further undermining the trust between the great powers and discourage cooperation. More discord and conflict may erupt between the United States on one side and Russia and China on the other. This will only increase the probability of an accidental nuclear war.
A general’s triumph means ten thousand rotting bones. Traditional
There is no victory in winning a hundred battles. There is victory in subduing your enemy without fighting at all. Sun Zi
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