A five-way tie for sixth?

The single-round elimination schedule of the PBA Philippine Cup is down to the last two games at the Smart Araneta Coliseum today and depending on the results of both contests, things could get complicated in the race to determine the eight playoff qualifiers.

The first pairing in today’s doubleheader pits GlobalPort (5-5) against Phoenix (4-6) while the second match features Barangay Ginebra (5-5) against Rain Or Shine (6-4). The Elasto Painters are safely in the quarterfinals even if they lose to Ginebra. If GlobalPort and Ginebra win, they, too, will advance to the quarters outright with the magic number of wins to qualify for the playoffs at six.

If Phoenix and Rain Or Shine win, there will be a five-way logjam for sixth spot with GlobalPort, Phoenix, Ginebra, Blackwater and TNT brandishing identical 5-6 records. In this scenario, the quotient system will determine which teams take No. 6, No. 7 and No. 10. PBA rules stipulate a one-game playoff for No. 8 so two teams will figure in a showdown to survive. GlobalPort is +33, Phoenix +2, Ginebra 0, Blackwater -12 and TNT -23. That means in a five-way deadlock, the KaTropa is out of contention because it lost to GlobalPort by 15, Ginebra by 15 and Phoenix by 2 and beat Blackwater by 9. GlobalPort is +33 less the margin of victory by Phoenix in today’s game so it doesn’t look like the Batang Pier will be dislodged as No. 6. The only way Phoenix can clinch No. 6 is if the Fuel Masters beat GlobalPort by at least 31 which is highly unlikely. The numbers will leave Ginebra and Blackwater to face off in a one-game, do-or-die battle for the last playoff ticket.

* * * * If GlobalPort and Ginebra win, there will be a tie for eighth place between TNT and Blackwater with identical 5-6 records. In this case, Ginebra, Rain Or Shine and GlobalPort will join NLEX in a tie for fourth spot with 6-5 cards. Ginebra will move up to No. 4, NLEX No. 5, Rain Or Shine No. 6 and GlobalPort No. 7. If Rain Or Shine loses to Ginebra by at least 13, it will drop to No. 7 and GlobalPort will advance to No. 6.

Phoenix is in a can’t-lose situation against GlobalPort. A loss to GlobalPort will settle the Fuel Masters at No. 11 with a 4-7 record. But a win gives Phoenix a chance to make it to the quarterfinals. If Phoenix and Ginebra win, there will be a four-way tie for seventh. In this case, GlobalPort has the lock on No. 7 because of its +40 quotient. Only a loss to Phoenix by 43 will take GlobalPort out of the No. 7 spot. Because there can only be one playoff for No. 8, the lowest-ranked team in the logjam, Blackwater, will be struck out of the qualifying equation because of its -29 disadvantage. Phoenix and TNT will then duel for No. 8.

* * * * If GlobalPort and Rain Or Shine win, three teams will tie for No. 7 with Blackwater, Ginebra and TNT deadlocked at 5-6 each. Blackwater will clinch No. 7 because of a superior quotient with Ginebra and TNT slugging it out for the last playoff ticket.

San Miguel Beer and Magnolia finished the eliminations with the same 8-3 record but the Beermen took pole position because of their 77-76 win over the Hotshots. Both San Miguel and Magnolia will enjoy a twice-tobeat advantage in the quarters against No. 7 and No. 8. Automatically out of contention are Meralco (4-7) and Kia (110). Alaska, NLEX and Rain Or Shine have qualified for the playoffs and will figure in a best-of-three series since they won’t end up either No. 7 or No. 8. Whatever the results in today’s twinbill, there will be a guaranteed one-game playoff for the last qualifying ticket on Sunday.