‘Suspicious’ public reins in deals with Beijing on WPS

A “highly suspicious” Filipino public is keeping President Duterte in check when it comes to dealing with China and handling the country’s territorial dispute with other claimants to the West Philippine Sea, analysts said.

In a recent commentary published in the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) website, Renato Cruz de Castro said Duterte continued the Armed Forces’ modernization program of previous administrations that would cost P300 billion during his term alone.

After his election in 2016, Duterte suggested he would pursue a policy of gravitating closer to China while ignoring territorial defense and focusing again on internal security, De Castro noted.

He said since late 2016, Duterte has pursued a policy of “appeasement” toward China by downplaying the disputes in the South China Sea in return for promised Chinese investment in the Philippines.

Duterte also proceeded to set aside the July 2016 ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which was in favor of Manila and against many of Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.

But despite the rapprochement in Philippines-China relations, De Castro said Duterte’s decision to finance the modernization program of the military suggests that he will continue the shift from internal to territorial defense.

“There seem to be two major reasons for this decision. First, Duterte needs to maintain support from the military, especially as he seeks to shift the country away from its historical reliance on the United States and toward a closer relationship with China driven by economic concessions.”

Duterte also needs to “shore up” military support in light of the resilience of domestic security challenges, as shown by the five-month siege of Marawi City by Islamic militants in 2017.

“Second, Philippine public opinion remains highly suspicious of Chinese actions in the South China Sea and is critical of the administration’s efforts to improve relations with Beijing,” De Castro said.

He said the political opposition and several civil society organizations have castigated the Duterte government for not pressing Beijing to comply with the Hague ruling and failing to denounce recent Chinese escalations in the South China Sea, including the landing of bombers in the Paracel Islands, installation of missile and jamming systems in the Spratlys, and harassment of Filipino fishermen at Scarborough Shoal.

De Castro said the Department of Foreign Affairs, after being “pressured by public opinion, has recently notified China of actions or crossing “red lines” that Manila would consider unacceptable in the South China Sea.

These include the Chinese construction of a permanent facility at Scarborough Shoal; any attempt to remove the derelict BRP Sierra Madre from Second Thomas Shoal or prevent resupply of the Filipino marines stationed aboard it; and unilateral extraction of oil and gas from the Philippines’ continental shelf.

“The decision to finance the second horizon is aimed at assuring the Filipino public that the government is developing a credible defense capability that will enable the AFP to respond in case China crosses those red lines,” De Castro said.

The sea game

Another analyst, however, said Duterte is using the 2016 arbitration ruling as “leverage” in dealing with China to advance the Philippines’ interests in the West Philippine Sea.

“Critics who slam the government for its failure to assert the ruling do not realize that that assertion is happening, albeit in different manner than expected,” said Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation.

Pitlo made the remarks in a commentary titled, “Duterte’s Sea Game: Arbitration as a means to an end,” which was published on the AMTI website on Aug. 27.

He said Duterte demonstrates pragmatism, foresight, and ingenuity in handling the South China Sea disputes.

“His rhetoric and actions suggest that he appreciates the arbitral award more as a means rather than an end,” Pitlo said. “The limitations and openings created by the ruling shape the emerging contours of Duterte’s sea game.”

The President had said the Philippines’ warmer relations with China have eased tensions and improved negotiations on the West Philippine Sea.

Pitlo said those warmer relations would not have been possible if Manila had aggressively touted the tribunal’s decision.

The Philippines is also not confining itself to a bilateral track, but is also actively taking part in regional tracks, he said. Pitlo cited the dialogue between the ASEAN and China, which led to a draft framework for a Code of Conduct on the South China Sea. Turn to Page 12