Winning (or losing) senatorial elections

Now that the circus we call the filing period of candidacies is almost over, the campaign begins, the COMELEC actually allows unregulated campaigning between now and the official start of the campaign period next year. Yes, as ridiculous as that sounds that is absolutely true.

For those interested in political science, the interest will focus on the factors that determine the winners and losers. This will be mid-term elections without any president and vice president running. Based on the past elections, there is much more interest and passion in presidential elections. The voter turnout is higher and people are more committed. In the 1986 presidential elections when Cory Aquino defeated Ferdinand Marcos, people were even willing to sacrifice their lives to protect the ballot boxes from the hoodlums of the Marcos forces. The other factor to consider is that national elections are very different from local elections. It is not true that the fate of senatorial candidates lies in the hands of congressional and local candidates. As elections near, local candidates will ignore national senatorial candidates and instead focus their time and resources on their own election and those of their local tickets.

In national elections, the first step is name recall. Voters will choose 12 names out of a list of more than a hundred names. Those who already have name awareness do not have to resort to political gimmicks. But, those who are not publicly known will necessarily resort to political gimmicks to develop name recall. This is the clear advantage of re-electionists and entertainment and news personalities. But name awareness cannot be developed in a matter of months. Perhaps, Harry Roque thought being presidential spokesman would allow him to be a household name. Unfortunately, the majority of people do not pay attention to press conferences and announcements. On the other hand, being a well known entertainment is also not a guarantee of winning as Richard Gomez and Tito Sotto discovered when they both lost in the 2007 senatorial elections.

There are lessons to be learned from the past three mid-term senatorial elections – 2001, 2007, 2013. A few of these lessons may have become obsolete due to the advent of social media and fake news. But, most of them still holds true. One lesson that seems consistent is that the popularity – or unpopularity- of the administration is a major factor in the eventual winning or losing of the senatorial elections.

In the 2001, mid-term elections, Erap Estrada had just been removed from the presidency. There were two major national slates running. The People Power Coalition ( PPC) were composed of those who supported the ouster of Estrada. On the other side was the “Puwersa ng Masa” (PM) composed of Estrada allies.

The final result was that seven PPC candidates won; and, five PM candidates won. The PPC candidates who won were Juan Flavier, Sergio Osmena III; Franklin Drilon, Joker Arroyo; Ramon Magsaysay Jr., Manuel Villar, Francis Pangilinan, and Ralph Recto. Joker Arroyo had become a national figure for his performance as one of the prosecutors in the Estrada impeachment trial. Manny Villar was the Speaker of the House that impeached Estrada.

The topnotcher in the election was Noli de Castro who ran under the pro Estrada group of Puwersa ng Masa. He defied the national trend and ranked way ahead of his group mates. This phenomenon was attributed to his being a daily broadcaster which raised his awareness. Notably, his broadcast station was ABS-CBN which had credibility with the public. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if Noli de Castro was with another broadcast group. The question still remains whether Noli de Castro won because of his personality or was it ABS-CBN that actually won. The second place went to another non-politician – Juan Flavier.

Three political giants who ran with Puwersa ng Masa – Juan Ponce Enrile, Miriam Defensor Santiago, Orlando Mercado – lost in that election which seems to prove that the popularity of the administration is vital.

In 2007, the administration had become very unpopular. Another major factor came into play. Under the leadership of Corazon Aquino and Manny Villar, the opposition forces, composed of critics of Gloria Macapagal united in a group called Genuine Opposition. The pro-administration was called Team Unity. The administration won three seats – Ed Angara, Joker Arroyo and Gringo Honasan who ran as an independent. Towards the end of the campaign period, Joker Arroyo was campaigning on his own or with Pangilinan and was developing an independent image.

The opposition won nine seats – Loren Legarda, Francis Escudero, Panfilo Lacson, Manuel Villar, Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, Alan Cayetano, Antonio Trillanes and Koko Pimentel. Among the losers who ran under Team Unity were Ralph Reccto, Juan Miguel Zubiri, and Tito Sotto.

In the 2013 midterm elections, the sitting president, Noynoy Aquino, had high popularity ratings and the economy was making the Philippines a rising tiger economy. The administration coalition was composed of the Liberal Party, led by Aquino, Nacionalista, led by Manny Villar and the Nationalist People’s Coalition led by Danding Coajuangco. The opposition, the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) was an alliance between the parties of Erap Estrada and Jojo Binay.

The administration ticket won nine seats – Grace Poe, Loren Legarda, Alan Cayetano, Francis Escudero, Sonny Angara, Bam Aquino, Koko Pimentel, Antonio Trillanes, Cynthia Villar. The opposition won three seats – Nancy Binay, JV Ejercito, and Gregorio Honasan.

In my next column on Sunday, I will write what I think are the other factors that will determine the results of the senatorial elections based on my analysis of the three past mid-term elections.

Young Writers’ Hangout on November 10 & 24 (1:30pm-3pm; stand-alone sessions), writing in the workplace with Ginny Santiago on Nov. 17 (1:30-4:30 pm) at Fully Booked BGC. For details and registration, email writethingsph@gmail.com.

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