Social weather report

If some people think of Social Weather Station (or Pulse Asia for that matter) as mere producers of election surveys, they are missing their importance.

SWS and Pulse Asia were conceived by academicians who want us to get a good idea of how people feel about issues and yes, personalities. As I said in my column last Wednesday, these groups are doing our democracy a great service.

Early last week, SWS presented the group’s annual SWS Survey Review at the Asian Institute of Management (AIM). The review tracked the people’s sentiments on the states of democracy and governance, public safety and security, and our economic and social wellbeing. What these surveys reveal are a lot more important than the rankings in the senatorial horse race surveys.

To give my readers a good idea of our current social weather, here is the summary that AIM sent me:

Rodrigo Duterte’s honeymoon has lasted 10 quarters so far (Pres. Benigno Simeon Aquino’s lasted 15 quarters). Freedom of speech seems steady. Two-thirds are worried about his health. The people recognize his vulgar speech and have not let it affect their esteem for him unlike his critics.

The ratings of other high officials are steady at customary levels; except that Speaker Arroyo has not recovered from her past unpopularity as president.

The report card grades of the administration are generally good; as usual the poorest subject is fighting inflation. The closure of Boracay was popular. Attitudes towards a national ID are favorable. Towards the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), most Filipinos are indifferent, but on balance favor it; Muslims, on the other hand, support it very strongly. Familiarity with the BOL and confidence in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are strong positive factors for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

The people support the campaign against illegal drugs, but are disappointed with the lack of truthfulness of the police and their unconcern for the lives of drug suspects. They see the poor as the worst affected, and are very worried about becoming EJK victims themselves.

Victimization by common crimes, as well as insecurity of homes and streets, rose in 2018. However, the visibility of drug addicts stabilized.

Most Filipinos want to maintain the Constitutional ban on the death penalty. For almost all serious crimes, the majority see life imprisonment as sufficient punishment. The exception is rape under the influence of drugs, for which 47 percent demand death, 44 percent call for life, and nine percent seek 20 to 40 years, in prison.

Seventy percent worry about becoming a victim of a heinous crime, and 62 percent about being falsely accused of committing such a crime.

Filipinos strongly agree (Net +34) that arresting “tambays” is a violation of their human rights. It discriminates against the poor by a factor of 20:1. Sixty-eight percent are worried of being themselves arrested for it.

For committing rape (63 percent) and murder (59 percent) most Filipinos say youth-offenders (<18 y/o) should be jailed. Only half (49 percent) want jail for drug-couriers. Few seek jail for stealing a cellphone (28 percent) or food (eight percent).

The median age of responsibility given by those wanting minors jailed for a crime is 15 years old.

There is no let-up in the intense Filipino antipathy towards China on account of China’s occupation of islands in the West Philippine Sea.

Filipinos continue to have a very high trust in the United States, and a low trust in China; there is no “Chinese rainbow.”

Filipinos strongly believe (Net +52) that the US will defend the Philippines in case of invasion by another country. Forty-seven percent were already aware of the Mutual Defense Treaty before the survey.

The gainers-losers indicator recovered to +12 in Q4 after having dropped to zero in Q3 -- strongest in Mindanao (+18) and weakest in Visayas (+3). Personal optimism and optimism in the economy remain very high.

The annual average self-rated poverty and food poverty rates rose in 2016-2018, after falling in 2014-2016. Half of Filipino families feel poor (Q4). The median poverty gap of poor families (P5,000/mo) is half of their

need for home expenses (P10,000/mo).

Hunger, however, continues to slide. An average 11 percent of families suffered hunger in 2018, a recovery from the great hump in 2005-14.

Twenty-one percent of adults are jobless (Q4) – steady improvement over the last six years.

Satisfaction with how democracy works continues to be very high. Those committed to democracy are three times those who say sometimes authoritarianism is better.

Only one of four is aware that federalism, of whatever form, would create a new level of local government, between the national level and the provincial level.

After realizing that federalism would essentially insert a new level of local government, 37 percent are for it and 29 percent are against it. There is no cry for federalism.

There we have it… a snapshot of how our fellow Filipinos feel about issues and the state of our country. Our leaders should use the results of surveys like this to craft policies and launch programs.

Knowing our country’s social weather is useful for all of us who want to be meaningful citizens and not just onlookers. Knowing what SWS revealed in this presentation helps us make more intelligent decisions as citizens… what to do and who to vote.

But these surveys are expensive. We need a new business model for SWS and Pulse Asia that will prevent their reputation from being tainted by political money. When they moonlight by doing commissioned surveys, like the one wherein Bong Go shot up in the rankings, something dies in their credibility.

This 2019 SWS Survey Review was made possible by a partnership of AIM’s Rizalino S. Navarro Policy Center for Competitiveness and Social Weather Station. It is now on its 18th year, with support from the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. Mahar Mangahas, president of SWS, made the presentation.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco