Do-or-die for Gilas in Astana

For the Philippines to qualify, it must beat Kazakhstan, no ifs and buts about it. A win will improve the Philippines’ record to 7-5, good for fourth place in its group. Japan is expected to trounce Qatar and will clinch No. 2 at 8-4. If Iran loses to Australia, it drops to 7-5. In a two-way tie, Iran will end up No. 3 and the Philippines No. 4. Note that Iran beat Gilas twice, 81-78 and 78-70. So the best finish for the Philippines is fourth in its group. To advance, Gilas must register a better record than the fourth placer in the other group.

Jordan and Lebanon are both at 6-5. If they win their last games, their records improve to 7-5 which will be the Philippines’ record with a win over Kazakhstan. In the event of a three-way tie, Lebanon will take No. 3 in its group and Jordan, No. 4. A three-way logjam to include Gilas will leave the Philippines out in the cold because of an inferior quotient. Lebanon is now +99 and Jordan +80. The Philippines is a distant +17.

To make it to the World Cup, Gilas must not only beat Kazakhstan but Jordan or Lebanon or both must lose their last game. A Gilas victory will improve its record to 7-5 and if Jordan or Lebanon loses, its record drops to 6-6. If both Jordan and Lebanon lose, the team with the better quotient takes No. 3 and a ticket to the World Cup while the other is booted out of contention. If the Philippines, Jordan and Lebanon lose their last game, Gilas will be out of the World Cup due to the quotient system.

Both South Korea and New Zealand can afford to lose their last game since they’re guaranteed to advance. In contrast, Jordan and Lebanon will be highly motivated to win because they’re playing at home. If they both win, their tickets to the World Cup are guaranteed.

The Philippines’ destiny isn’t in its hands. While it has to beat Kazakhstan, a win won’t assure a slot in the World Cup. Jordan must lose to New Zealand or Lebanon must lose to South Korea or both for the Philippines to advance with a win over Kazakhstan. Of course, a loss to Kazakhstan will eliminate the Philippines outright, regardless of how Jordan and Lebanon fare in their last game.

Gilas coach Yeng Guiao said he’ll worry about Jordan and Lebanon after beating Kazakhstan. The Philippines’ only focus is to beat Kazakhstan because if it loses, the road to the World Cup abruptly comes to an end. Beating Kazakhstan is the only priority and once a win is in the bag, then Gilas will pray for a win by either South Korea over Lebanon or New Zealand over Jordan.