Trump has an Iran strategy
But it’s very high risk.
The Trump administration has a more situation entered a newly volatile stage coherent policy on Iran than it does on this past weekend. many other issues. That doesn’t mean An attack from an unknown source, the policy will necessarily work, but it evidently using missiles and drones, is at least understandable. damaged valuable oil installations in
President Trump, drawing from a Saudi Arabia, Iran’s chief rival for Midstandard Republican Party position, dle Eastern influence. An Iranian-backed decided that the 2015 nuclear-arms faction in Yemen (which is in the midst of deal that the Obama administration Saudi-led civil war) took responsibility; and Europe signed with Iran was too the Trump administration blames Iran. lenient. In the Obama deal, Iran agreed The motivation for the attack still isn’t to restrict its nuclear program and accept clear. One possibility is that hard-liners international inspections in exchange for within Iran ordered or encouraged it, out the lifting of economic sanctions. of a desire to scuttle the upcoming negotiations,
Trump withdrew from the deal last as The Wall Street Journal’s Gerald year and enacted tough sanctions on Seib explained. The hard-liners may Iran. He was betting that the sanctions have feared that Iran’s government would cause enough economic pain was going to offer concessions – which that Iran would agree to a more stringent would be a sign that Trump’s strategy deal — one that not only limits its might be working. nuclear program but also reduces its financing Another possibility, though, is that of extremist groups like Hamas. the Iranian government ordered it because Trump’s strategy brings more risk and it views Trump as a weak negotiator potentially more reward than Obama’s. who is afraid of war. By escalating
And Trump’s sanctions have caused the situation, Iran may be betting that deep hardship for Iran. Unemployment Trump will back down, as David Kirkpatrick has jumped, and the value of the currency and Farnaz Fassihi of The Times has plunged. Iran’s president, wrote. In that case, the combination of Hassan Rouhani, has even compared Trump’s tough sanctions and his generally the impact to “that of the devastating chaotic foreign policy may have Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s,” as Vivian pushed the Middle East closer to war. Yee of The Times notes. It’s still too early to know. I am deeply
In recent weeks, Trump had shown skeptical of virtually everything this an openness to meeting with Rouhani, administration does, and my skepticism which raised the possibility that the two extends to its Iran policy. But it’s countries would agree to a deal that jusalso important to acknowledge when tified Trump’s tough approach. But the the outcome of a policy is not yet clear.