More pork, chicken imports seen in 2020

The Philippines is set buy more pork and chicken from the global market as domestic production is seen to decline by 16 percent next year.

In the latest report of the United States Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service, the Philippines is expected to import 350,00 metric tons (MT) of pork next year, up 32 percent from the 265,000 MT projected this year.

“As pork production falls sharply, chicken meat production and imports of both pork and chicken meat will rise. Elevated chicken supplies will spur consumption to exceed that of pork,” USDA said.

The Philippines will also hike its chicken meat imports by 27 percent to 400,000 MT next year as the projected 10 percent increase in local production will not be enough to meet additional domestic consumption of nearly two million MT.

Meanwhile, global production is seen to decline 10 percent to 95.2 million MT due to the impact of ASF on swine herds in several major producing countries.

Worldwide consumption of pork will likewise go down by almost the same level.

“Most of the reduction in global production is due to a 25 percent decline in China pork production. Production is also lower in the Philippines and Vietnam,” USDA said.

In Europe, weak domestic demand, ongoing ASF in some member states, and environmental regulations have delayed expansion initiatives.

Most major pork exporters, however, will boost production next year due to rising global import demand. Production remains robust in the US and in Brazil.

USDA said global pork exports could reach 10.4 million MT next year from the 9.4 million MT expected to be traded this year.

“Outside of ASF-affected countries, demand is expected to be muted by higher global prices. Many price sensitive markets are expected to reduce imports of pork on strong competition from ASFaffected buyers,” it said.

As for chicken meat, global production will increase four percent to reach a record 103.5 million MT and worldwide consumption will also increase at the same pace.

China will account for more than half of the global production increase, driven by improved access to imported genetics and rising meat prices as ASF outbreaks slash domestic pork supplies.

Elevated Chinese protein import demand will boost production in Brazil and Thailand, which will set record production levels in 2020.

Brazil’s expansion will also be driven by rising domestic consumption on an improved economic outlook.

According to USDA, global chicken exports could also reach a record 12.5 million MT next year with Brazil and Thailand making the greatest export gains.