Where do we stand?
Where does the Philippines stand as the world emerges from its virus-flexed lockdowns? In the shifting global economic landscape, many governments are already rethinking their strategies for the longer-term. It is not an easy task, what with the continued uncertainties shaping the geopolitical stage.
We don’t know how far the US-China trade war will further damage the world’s economy. We see a World Trade Organization (WTO) that has been brought down to its knees realizing how much weaker it has become as more countries lean towards protectionist sentiments and measures.
More importantly, we still don’t know how to face this unseen enemy that has already threatened the lives of over five million people and has killed 350,000 individuals all over the world. Morally, it has taunted and made us choose between saving lives or protecting livelihoods.
These days, the thirst to be a big winner has been dulled by the more primal instinct to survive. For most Filipinos, going hungry has become acceptable to being sick or dying. This explains why, unlike Americans, we have more meekly accepted the quarantines.
Our three centuries of subjugation under the Spanish conquistadores has fortified our collective spirit of resilience, for good or for worse. Ten weeks under lockdown does not make us fear the consequences of economic collapse. It has even made us callous to our government’s incompetence.
Belt-tightening
Like many countries, the Philippines is facing one of its historically toughest years. The government is already projecting lower tax collections and non-tax revenues. Businesses are facing huge losses from the months of work stoppages. Households are poorer with the severance of incomes and depletion of savings.
The impact of a global economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic, however, has not been fully felt yet. In the next few months, remittances by Filipinos from abroad will significantly contract, something that has never happened before.
For both the Philippine government and its citizens, all these changes mean significant belt-tightening in the coming months. The coffers of local governments are already depleted from emergency spending to battle the virus spread. In future, this could mean less money for street-sweeping jobs, contractual staff, road repairs, and frequent street patrols.
Families will cut back on all, but the basic expenditures as many play catch-up in paying overdue bills.
Shell-shocked
Going back to our first question of today’s column, the country unfortunately remains shell-shocked by this pandemic, the same way as most other countries unprepared to deal with it. Judging from the way we are handling this crisis, we still do not have a plan to effectively deal with the current infection outbreak.
Science tells us that we are not yet over the hump as the virus replication continues to stand above the acceptable ratio – and has continued to do so for some time now. We need someone who can understand the science and translate it in actionable terms to protect lives and livelihoods.
Sadly, there appears to be no one there.
A reader speaks out
From our reader, Felino C. Torrente Jr. of Batasan Hills in Quezon City, is a reassuring letter supporting our views in the past weeks. Hear him out, please.
“Your columns on the … subjects that appear in the May 14 and 21 issue of the Philippine STAR (Business Section) are very enlightening indeed.
“The lockdown was extended until May 31 under the so-called modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ). The government says that the MECQ is a mere transition phase between the strictest enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) to the more lenient general community quarantine (GCQ). In other words, the lockdown will be extended again after May 31 under GCQ.
“If the lockdown will continue next month, the Philippines will hold the record for the longest COVID-19 lockdown in the world. By May 31, the country will remain under lockdown for 77 days (counted from March 16, the first day), while Wuhan City and Hubei province in China was locked down for 76 days.
“Of late, The Economist (a periodical) says that lockdowns ‘are brunt instruments that can cause immense harm.’ It adds, ‘Since China locked down the City of Wuhan on January 23rd, over a third of the world's population has at one or another had been shut away at home. It is hard to think of any policy ever having been imposed so widely with such little preparation or debate. But then closing down society was not a thought-out response, so much as a desperate measure for a desperate time. It has slowed the pandemic but at a terrible price. As they seek to put lockdown behind them, governments are not thinking hard enough about the costs and benefits of what comes next.’
“Without doubt, the foregoing applies to the Philippines. To begin with, ‘stay home orders’ cannot demand compliance from people who have no homes to stay in and social distancing cannot be expected from families who are packed like sardines in their homes.
“Instead of extending further lockdowns and granting social amelioration funds, the government must find other measures to keep the economy afloat and going. The longer the lockdowns, the harder for businesses to re-open, that is, if ever there are still subsisting to be re-started.
“’Stupidity is doing the same things again and again and expecting a different result each time.’”
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Should you wish to share any insights, write me at Link Edge, 25th Floor, 139 Corporate Center, Valero Street, Salcedo Village, 1227 Makati City. Or e-mail me at reydgamboa@yahoo.com. For a compilation of previous articles, visit www. BizlinksPhilippines.net.