‘Phl COVID cases may hit 500,000 by yearend’

The country’s COVID- 19 cases may hit half a million by the end of the year, a projection of the OCTA Research Group of the University of the Philippines showed yesterday.

Based on its monitoring report dated Nov. 30, OCTA projected that there would be 470,000 to 500,000 cases of COVID-19 in the country by Dec. 31.

Citing data from the Department of Health (DOH), OCTA said its calculation of the country’s reproduction number indicated an increase to 0.88, which “remains below the critical level of 1 for the period from Nov. 22 to 28.”

An increase in new cases per day was observed in the National Capital Region (NCR) at 18 percent, Davao at 14 percent and Western Visayas at five percent.

“Among provinces, commendable was the improvement seen in Benguet province (Baguio City in particular) and Cebu province (Cebu City in particular) where weekly cases have dropped,” the group noted.

However, OCTA has expressed concern over Quezon province, which has a 31 percent increase in daily cases and high positivity rate or 20 percent; and Bulacan with 25.7 percent increase but low positivity rate of six percent.

“Misamis Oriental ( 46 percent) and Western Samar ( 75 percent) also saw large increases in cases, albeit relatively manageable positivity rates. Southern Cotabato, in contrast, had reduced cases, but still had a high positivity rate,” OCTA added.

Aside from NCR, provinces listed as high risk are Davao del Sur, Quezon, Negros Occidental, Pampanga, Bulacan, Misamis Oriental and Western Samar.

According to OCTA, the increase in new cases is “largely community transmission exacerbated by the rise in mobility due to the opening up of the economy.”

OCTA said the situation in the NCR is still manageable and should not be a cause for alarm.

However, the group underscored that the current positive trends in the NCR and in the Philippines “are very tenuous and can easily be reversed” if the government, the private sector and the public become complacent in the fight against COVID-19.

“We also exhort the national and the local governments to strictly monitor and enforce compliance with minimum health standards such as physical distancing, the wearing of face masks and face shields and proper hygiene to reverse the increase in transmissions at the community level,” OCTA added.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III admitted there has been a slight increase in COVID-19 cases in the past weeks, especially in Metro Manila, as the country enters the holiday season.

“OCTA is right that there has been a slight increase in cases in NCR if we use the two-week growth rate, average daily attack rate and critical care utilization rate,” he said.

He stressed he is not in favor of shifting the lockdown status in the NCR from general community quarantine to moderate GCQ, as doing so could only trigger more cases.

He said that de- escalating the lockdown would mean easing up restrictions, thus “contact rates and transmission rate will increase.”

“Cases will increase and when this happens, our health system may be overwhelmed. This is not good because mortality rate will also increase because of COVID-19 complications, especially among the elderly,” he added.

Duque added the rise could be attributed to relocation of people to evacuation centers due to the impact of Typhoons Quinta, Rolly and Ulysses.

According to Duque, the holiday season could also be a reason for the spike as people have started to go out.

“They started to mingle with other people, forgetting the minimum health standards such as wearing of face masks and face shields, distancing and hand washing, frequent use of alcohol and disinfection,” he said.

“The spike in cases is real and this should serve as a signal for us to be careful and to strictly adhere to health measures,” he added.

Doctors’ group Health Professionals Alliance Against COVID-19 (HPAAC) yesterday backed the calls of the Department of Health (DOH) against having family reunions or any mass gathering during the Yuletide season.

HPAAC co-convenor Tony Dans said not manifesting any symptom of COVID-19 is not an assurance that a person is not infected.

“What is scary about COVID-19 is most of the affected are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. They are the ones that spread the virus, based on a study that we conducted… How can we protect ourselves from them if they, themselves, are not aware they are infected?” he pointed out.

Dans cited some 5,000 returning workers of a company who were swab-tested for COVID-19 in July. Four percent of them tested positive although they did not have symptoms.

Meanwhile, Sen. Risa Hontiveros is pushing for additional funds in the 2021 budget of the DOH for the immediate rebuilding of COVID-19 testing and isolation facilities damaged by the recent typhoons.

Hontiveros said the additional DOH budget would go to rebuilding typhoon-hit facilities in Bicol region considered “completely non-functional.” Areas that lost their facilities ( Camaries Sur, Albay, Camarines Norte) also had the highest number of infections in the region, she added.