Gov’t sees jobless rate back at pre-pandemic level by 2024

The country’s unemployment rate is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by 2024, with over one million people expected to enter the workforce next year, according to the National Economic and Development Authority.

During the Senate committee of finance hearing on the proposed 2023 budget yesterday, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan answered in the affirmative when asked if the country’s unemployment rate would be back to its pre-pandemic level by 2024.

“For 2023, we are expecting unemployment to reach 5.7 to 6.8 percent. By 2024, [we expect it at] five to 5.3 percent,” he said.

For this year, the unemployment rate is projected at 5.1 to 6.5 percent.

Last year, the unemployment rate was at 7.8 percent.

Prior to the pandemic, the country’s unemployment rate was 5.1 percent in 2019 and 5.3 percent in 2018.

“For next year, we expect more people, particularly those under the K-12, who are already joining the labor force,” Balisacan said.

As such, he said the government does not expect to see a sharp decline in the unemployment rate next year.

Despite this, he said the government expects to see a significant number of jobs being created with the continued opening of the economy.

“As discussed in the last Cabinet meeting, we will continue to open up the economy, making sure the next quarter would create more stimulus for job creation,” he said.

He said the recent move to make the wearing of face masks optional in open spaces or outdoors would spur more economic activities, particularly for small and medium enterprises.

“So, I am quite upbeat insofar as the employment situation is concerned…for the near term, that there will be quite significant improvement even given the inflation and the uptick in interest rates,” he said.

Latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed the unemployment rate was at 5.2 percent in July, the lowest level during the pandemic. This was also lower than the six percent jobless rate in June this year, and the 7.2 percent in July last year.

The latest unemployment rate translates to 2.60 million jobless Filipinos in July, down from the 2.99 million in June, and the 3.23 million in July last year.

While there was a decline in the unemployment rate in July, there was an increase in the number of people looking for additional work.

The underemployment rate rose to 13.8 percent in July from the 12.6 percent in June, but was lower than the 21 percent in July last year.

This translates to 6.54 million who are underemployed or looking for additional hours of work or an additional job in July this year, up from the 5.89 million in June, but down from the 8.77 million in July last year.

While the government aims to see a decline in the percentage of unemployment and underemployment, Balisacan said it also wants to make sure quality jobs are being created.