Taiwan’s military value

There have been a lot of discussion about the importance of Taiwan from the political point of view. China, for instance, believes that Taiwan is a breakaway province that belongs to them. It must be pointed out, however, that Taiwan was never under the control of communist China. The United States and its allies consider that they must defend Taiwan as a democratic country and ensure that it must not fall under the authoritarian rule of China. What has been often under-appreciated is the military value of Taiwan. This island nation serves as a gateway to the Philippine Sea.

For those who are not knowledgeable, the Philippine Sea is a large body of water that lies east of Taiwan and the Philippines and west of the Pacific Ocean. This makes this body of water a critical link between Asia and the Pacific Ocean. The Philippine Sea therefore is a vital theater of war for defending Japan, the Philippines and South Korea from possible Chinese coercion or attack. If Beijing gains control of Taiwan, its military position would improve tremendously because China would now have direct access to the Philippine Sea and the Pacific Ocean.

Professor Brendan Rittenhouse Green of the University of Cincinnati and Professor Caitlin Talmadge of Georgetown University have written one of the best analyses of the military value of Taiwan. They wrote: “Even without any major technological or military leaps, possession of the island, i.e. Taiwan, would improve China’s ability to impede US naval and air operations in the Philippine Sea and thereby limit the US’s ability to defend its Asian allies. And if in the future Beijing were to develop quiet nuclear attack submarines and ballistic missile submarines, basing them on Taiwan would enable China to threaten Northeast Asian shipping lanes and strengthen its sea-based nuclear forces.”

Aside from the geo-political ramifications, the island nation’s military value, therefore, strengthens the argument for keeping Taiwan from falling into China’s hands. It is clear that a Chinese assault on Taiwan will affect the balance of power in Asia in different ways.

If China were to take the island swiftly and easily, then China will be able to assimilate Taiwan’s strategic resources like its semiconductor industry and bolster Beijing’s military power in the world. But if China were to find itself bogged down in a prolonged war in its attempt to occupy Taiwan, this will become a significant drag on Beijing’s might.

There was a time when there was wide belief that China could easily conquer Taiwan if the US does not intervene. However, the recent extreme difficulty of Russia attempting to conquer Ukraine has shown that a weaker and smaller country with sufficient courage can fight off an invasion.

The US and its allies also have the problem of the cost of defending Taiwan, which could be extremely costly. The dilemma for the US is that they have been previously ambiguous whether they would come to the defense of Taiwan and neighboring countries like the Philippines and Vietnam. Washington does not have a crystal clear military support in the event of invasion.

However, if the US and its allies state clearly that they will defend any Chinese attempt to take Taiwan, this will probably motivate China to go into an arms race to compensate for its present military disadvantages. It is clear that the US and its allies do not have any good choices. Allowing China to control Taiwan would give Beijing the significant military advantages as previously mentioned. Japan, the Philippines and South Korea would most likely demand a stronger and clearer commitment from the US to defend their territory.

According to the two professors: “Over the longer term, US allies in the region would also likely fear the growing Chinese threat to shipping routes… Anticipation of these dangers would almost certainly drive US allies to seek greater reassurance from the US in the form of tighter defense pacts, additional military aid and more visible US force deployment in the region, including of nuclear forces on or near allies’ territory… If the Cold War is any guide, such steps could themselves heighten the risk of nuclear escalation in a crisis or a war.”

Taiwan’s unique military value, therefore, poses a problem for the US and its allies. The island’s capability to change the balance of power in the region will force the US to some difficult decisions that could result in an arms race or even conflict with China.

In addressing the problem in East Asia, it would be necessary for the US to rebuild a new world order. For this new order to be viable, it must be an alliance of democratic forces and not just the US leading the whole pack.

In defending Taiwan and the surrounding countries like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, an alliance of democratic countries is needed so that it is not viewed as another attempt by the US to dominate global affairs.

* * * Our November writing date: Nov. 26, 2-3 pm, Young Writers’ Hangout with returning facilitator Susan Lara. Contact writethingsph@gmail.com. 0945.2273216

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