Asian stock markets mixed ahead of US-China trade talks

Asian markets were mixed yesterday with investors moving cautiously as they sifted through conflicting reports about the outlook for upcoming China-US trade talks.

Global investors have been broadly upbeat in recent weeks that the meeting in Washington between top-level representatives would see at least some progress.

But with the much-anticipated gathering due to start within hours, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported premeeting discussions had not made any progress on key areas such as forced technology transfers, and that the meet would be cut in half to just one day.

That came after Wall Street’s three main indexes ended with healthy gains on reports that a pared-down deal was still possible, with Beijing boosting agricultural purchases and Washington delaying the imposition of new tariffs next week.

Tensions were already showing this week after the US unveiled restrictions on 28 Chinese entities over human rights violations in Xinjiang and imposed visa restrictions on some officials, while a report said the White House was considering curtailing American investment in the country.

For its part, sources were reported to have said China had narrowed the issues it was willing to discuss as it felt in a stronger position owing to Donald Trump facing an impeachment inquiry at home and a weakening economy.

The SCMP report “reverses the trade optimism that was dominating overnight flow as investors were hoping that at minimum, some type of a deal could be forged”, said Stephen Innes, Asia-Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader.

“So instead of debating how encompassing the deal might be, investors are now back to plucking petals from a flower guessing if there will be a deal at all.”

On regional markets, Hong Kong edged up 0.1% to 25,707.93 while Tokyo finished 0.5% higher at 21,551.98 and Shanghai put on 0.8% to 2,947.71 points yesterday. Manila was also higher.

But Seoul shed 0.8%, Singapore eased 0.4%, Mumbai dropped 0.8% and Bangkok fell 0.5%. Sydney and Jakarta were flat.

In foreign exchange markets, the dollar was lower against most other currencies after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting showed it was growing concerned about the impact of Trump’s trade war.

The central bank is expected to cut interest rates for a third time when the board meets again later this month.

The minutes “revealed greater concerns over downside risk from slowing global growth and trade tensions with subdued inflation also seen as a reason to cut”, said Rodrigo Catril at National Australia Bank.

But he pointed out that “a few officials saw the need to push back against market Fed rate cut expectations”.