Pipeline unlikely to come online before 4Q 2020: BloombergNEF

US sanctions targeting all pipe-laying vessels involved in construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany will delay the commissioning of the project by more than three months, compared to the previous estimation from BloombergNEF.

This means the pipeline will probably come online by 4Q 2020 at the earliest, according to BNEF. The pipeline will be completed once work still pending on a 54-kilometre section in Danish waters and a 16-kilometre section in the German Exclusive Economic Zone is finished, according to BNEF.

US sanctions aimed at blocking the work, signed by President Trump on December 20, apply exclusively to the Danish section of the pipeline, BNEF says, as the depth of the German section does not exceed the threshold of 100 feet defined in the sanctions.

Two Russian pipe-laying vessels could substitute two ships owned by Switzerlandbased Allseas Group that have stopped work due to the sanctions, the Solitaire and Pioneering Spirit.

These are Fortuna, managed by Russia’s MRTS, and Akademik Cherskiy, managed by Gazprom Flot, a Gazprom subsidiary. The Fortuna is currently docked at the port of Mukran in the Baltic Sea and is able to lay pipes at the speed of 1 kilometre per day.

This means that it would take the ship as much as 3.5 months to complete the work if both strings are laid sequentially. The Fortuna is a better candidate to complete the remaining works in the Baltic Sea as the Akademik Cherskiy is a much slower vessel.

The movement history of the latter shows the ship lays pipes at the speed of 0.34 kilometres per day.

Moreover, the Akademik Cherskiy is currently docked at the port of Nakhodka in Eastern Russia, and it can take up to two months to transit to the Baltic, if the vessel sails at its average historical speed of 7 knots.

That said, only vessels equipped with a so-called dynamic positioning system are allowed to perform pipe laying of Nord Stream 2 in Danish waters.

This condition is detailed in the permit issued by the Danish Energy Agency to Nord Stream 2 on October 30. This requirement is due to the high risk to contact an unexploded ordnance when using a vessel with an anchor as opposed to dynamic positioning.

According to the website of MRTS, Fortuna uses anchors to hold its position. There is no indication that the vessel has a dynamic positioning system as well. MTRS, the shipowner, did not return calls seeking comment.