At least 300,000 Africans ‘expected to die in pandemic’
The Covid-19 pandemic will likely kill at least 300,000 Africans and risks pushing 29mn into extreme poverty, the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) said yesterday, calling for a $100bn safety net for the continent.
Africa’s 54 countries have so far reported fewer than 20,000 confirmed cases of the disease, just a fraction of the more than 2mn cases reported globally.
But the World Health Organisation warned on Thursday that Africa could see as many as 10mn cases in three to six months.
“To protect and build towards our shared prosperity at least $100bn is needed to immediately resource a health and social safety net response,” the UNECA report stated.
UNECA is also backing a call by African finance ministers for an additional $100bn in stimulus, which would include a halt to all external debt service.
The agency modelled four scenarios based on the level of preventive measures introduced by African governments.
In the total absence of such interventions, the study calculated over 1.2bn Africans would be infected and 3.3mn would die this year. Africa has a total population of around 1.3bn.
Most of Africa, however, has already mandated social distancing measures, ranging from curfews and travel guidelines in some countries to full lockdowns in others.
Yet even its best-case scenario, where governments introduce intense social distancing once a threshold of 0.2 deaths per 100,000 people per week is reached, Africa would see 122.8mn infections, 2.3mn hospitalisations and 300,000 deaths.
Combating the disease will be complicated by the fact that 36% of Africans have no access to household washing facilities, and the continent counts just 1.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people.
France, in comparison, has 5.98 beds per 1,000 people.
Africa’s young demographic — nearly 60% of the population is below the age of 25 — should help stave off the disease.
On the other hand, 56% of the urban population is concentrated in overcrowded slums and many people are also vulnerable due to HIV/Aids, tuberculosis and malnutrition.
Africa imports 94% of its pharmaceuticals, the report said, noting that at least 71 countries have banned or limited exports of certain supplies deemed essential to fight the disease. “In a best-case scenario...$44bn would be required for testing, personal protective equipment, and to treat all those requiring hospitalisation,” it stated.
However, that is money Africa does not have as the crisis could also shrink the continent’s economy by up to 2.6%.
“We estimate that between 5mn and 29mn people will be pushed below the extreme poverty line of $1.90 per day owing to the impact of Covid-19,” the report said.
Nigeria alone will lose between $14bn and $19.2bn in revenues from oil exports this year.
And the prices of other African commodities exports have plummeted as well. Lockdowns in Europe and the United States also imperil Africa’s $15bn in annual textile and apparel exports as well as tourism, which accounts for 8.5% of Africa’s GDP.