Faster transition to renewable energy to impact oil exporters
IF the transition to renewable energy and low-carbon electricity happens faster than the energy establishment anticipates, the implications for exporters of oil and for the geopolitics of oil will be very serious, Professor Paul Stevens, Distinguished Fellow, Chatham House, said at the 10th Bosphorus Summit held recently in Istanbul.
“For example, the failure of many oil-exporting countries to reduce their dependence on hydrocarbon revenues and diversify their economies will leave them extremely vulnerable to reduced oil and gas demand in their main markets.”
Professor Stevens was addressing one of the two panel sessions hosted by Qatar-based leading energy and sustainable development think tank Al-Attiyah Foundation, at the summit.
Professor Steven’s views reflect those outlined in a report released by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in October 2018, which affirmed that a huge transformation of the energy sector will be required. An average investment of $3 trillion a year will be needed, in the next 30-years, to transform the world energy systems, according to the report.
It is expected that much of the investment will involve shifting money away from fossil fuel systems and clean energy investments must overtake fossil fuel investments by around 2025.
Since energy is crucial to the production of almost all goods and services of the modern world; and is a dominant contributor to climate change, accounting for 60% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, the challenge to reduce such emissions is immense.
Michael Grubb, Research Director and Professor Energy and Climate Change, University College London (UCL) – Institute of Sustainable Resources and Energy Institute, said, “Climate change is a pressing global issue with time running out to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference. Some countries are leading the way, and reducing their CO2 emissions, aided by clean energy technologies. The initiatives open up new paths for global energy and economic development.”
Akito Matsumoto, a Senior Economist, Commodities Unit, International Monetary Fund (IMF), said natural gas and renewables were set to play an important role in the future energy mix despite the huge uncertainty in what energy policies and technologies will be at play in the future.
The views shared by the panellists at the Bosphorus Summit 10, highlighted the great challenges faced by the world in its efforts to de-carbonise the energy sector.
Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency echoed these views in the World Energy Outlook 2019.
“What comes through with crystal clarity in this year’s World Energy Outlook is that there is no single or simple solution to transforming global energy systems. Many technologies and fuels have a part to play across all sectors of the economy.
For this to happen, we need strong leadership from policy makers, as governments hold the clearest responsibility to act and have the greatest scope to shape the future.”
In line with the vision of the Foundation’s Chairman, His Excellency Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, the Foundation’s ongoing strategic partnership with the Uluslararasi Işbirlği Platforumu, International Cooperation Platform (UIP-ICP), which organises the leading summit, provides an opportunity to enhance proactive multilateral and inter-disciplinary cooperation for sustainable development.
As the only energy and sustainable development think tank to partner the ICP Bosphorus Summit, the Al-Attiyah Foundation convened global thought-leaders from academia, industry and government, to share opinions and potential solutions to the challenges faced by the world as it transitions towards a sustainable energy future.