Additional fiscal stimulus helps fuel US retail sales
Retail sales surged by a seasonally adjusted 5.3% last month, ending three months of declines
U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January after households received additional pandemic relief money from the government, suggesting a pick-up in economic activity after being restrained by a fresh wave of COVID-19 infections late last year. The surge in sales reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday was across the board and ended three straight months of declines. Other data showed inflation pressures building up at the factory gate, with producer prices posting their biggest gain since 2009 in January. Retail sales surged by a seasonally adjusted 5.3 last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. Data for December was revised down to show sales decreasing 1.0 instead of 0.7 as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales increasing 1.1 in January. Retail sales increased 7.4 from a year ago. Sales last month were led by motor vehicles, with receipts at auto dealerships accelerating 3.1 after increasing 2.0 in December. Sales at clothing stores soared 5.0 . Consumers also stepped up spending at restaurants and bars, boosting receipts 6.9 . Still, sales at restaurants and bars were down 16.6 compared to January 2020. Receipts at electronics and appliance stores powered ahead 14.7 and sales at furniture stores surged 12.0 . There were also hefty increases in sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores. Receipts at food and beverage stores rose solidly, as did those at building material stores. Online retail sales jumped 11.0 after dropping 7.3 in December. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales jumped 6.0 last month after decreasing by a revised 2.4 in December. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. They were previously estimated to have dropped 1.9 in December. The government approved another coronavirus rescue package worth nearly $900 billion at the end of December, which included $600 checks to mostly low-income and some middle-income Americans. The bulk of the money was disbursed in early January, which supported discretionary spending last month. The package also extended a government-funded weekly unemployment subsidy as well as benefits for millions of people who do not qualify for state unemployment programs as well as those who have exhausted their six months of eligibility. US stocks opened lower. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were higher. Some of the sharp rebound was technical. The model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data typically anticipates a bigger post-holiday season drop in retail sales in January. The drop in unadjusted sales was smaller than in previous years, contributing to the big rise in the seasonally adjusted retail sales. Further gains in sales are expected in the months ahead. The U.S. Congress is considering President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion recovery plan, which will include an additional $1,400 check to households. The massive fiscal stimulus is expected to power consumer spending this quarter and drive faster economic growth. COVID-19 infection rates and hospitalizations in the United States are also declining, and the distribution of vaccines has improved. That should allow more restaurants and other consumer-facing businesses to reopen in the spring. Employed Americans have boosted savings, which stood at $2.38 trillion in December. That could unleash pent-up demand for services like air travel and hotel accommodation, which have been hardest hit by the pandemic. The economy is forecast growing by as much as 4.8 this year after contracting 3.5 in 2020, the biggest drop in gross domestic product since 1946. Firming economic activity is starting to boost inflation.