The role of natural gas in powering Africa’s future
Africa is projected to experience significant population growth, rising from around 1.4 billion to close to 2.5 billion by 2050, according to the 7th edition of the GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050. This, along with rural-urban migration, primarily by the youth population in search of better career opportunities in cities, is expected to result in almost 1.5 billion people living in cities by that date.
The continent’s macroeconomic drivers of energy demand, such as population growth, urbanisation, and industrialisation, are more favourable than any other continent. The African region is on the brink of a massive take-off for industrialisation, with a growing young population, abundant natural resources, and emerging internal markets. Africa’s real GDP is expected to nearly triple from US$2.7 trillion in 2021 to US$7.1 trillion by 2050. This potential for growth relies heavily on energy to provide the necessary amenities in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Despite Africa’s strategic abundance of diverse energy resources and the critical role of energy in its urbanisation and industrialisation process, significant energy access problems persist for many Africans. These include limited energy infrastructure that interconnects African countries from resource base regions to demand sectors, resulting in vulnerabilities to external shocks. These shocks arise from distant geopolitical tensions, leading to excessive inflation and cost-of-living crises. Moreover, excessive greenhouse gas emissions from developed nations contribute to floods and climate-related vulnerabilities, which come at a high cost for Africans, given their low-level economies and under-industrialisation. The UN SDGs serve as a pathway for African growth and development in the face of these challenges.
While biomass and renewable energy have large potential in meeting the African energy demand, urgent need to address indoor pollution from biomass, while lack of much-needed funding to ensure technology readiness, economic viability, lack of resilience and intermittency have rendered renewable energy options insufficient to meet African economic growth potentials, leaving an opportunity to deploy many energy sources, with the abundant and cheap natural gas reserves as the fore-front energy candidate.
UN SDGs and Africa’s future energy demand
The adoption of the UN SDG 7 goals, with affordable energy as the central pillar, represents one of the most sustainable pathways for developing the African economy. The World Health Organization (WHO) has affirmed that “Energy is also critical for achieving almost all other global goals.” Affordable, reliable, and abundant energy is crucial for Africa to urgently eradicate poverty given that more than 455 million people lived below the poverty line just before the Covid-19 pandemic, with a further 30 million added to this figure after the pandemic. For simplicity, Figure 1 provides a link between some of the UN SDGs to avoid a complicated diagram involving all SDGs.
Pronounced energy poverty is becoming a global challenge due to the spike in energy and commodity prices, underscoring the need for a more reliable and affordable energy option. Clean, reliable, and affordable energy has a significant impact on advanced health as the WHO considers health to be “inextricably linked” with energy.
This link also extends to the provision of quality education for all where modern affordable energy is essential for rigorous and comprehensive learning tools and solutions, ranging from sophisticated laboratories to basic classroom lighting. Moreover, affordable energy access creates an enabling environment for industry, innovation, and infrastructure providing options for cheap technologies to ensure clean water improve job security and economic growth and combat climate change. These linkages underscore the unprecedented scientific and historical significance of affordable energy in launching economic growth, which Africans need now more than ever.
The African continent faces three significant challenges: lingering acute energy access problems, vast infrastructural deficits, and exposure to vulnerabilities due to rising geopolitical tensions and climate change.
The evolution of the energy mix in Africa over the last two decades
African region had very marked variations of energy trends, being uniquely divided between sub-Saharan Africa, where energy poverty persists, hampering economic growth, and North Africa and South Africa, having higher economic development promoted by the stronger electrification and energy requirements.
The region’s energy demand relies heavily on traditional biomass (e.g., wood, dung and other solid wastes), primarily for cooking. It is by far the most widely used energy source across Africa, with the exception of South Africa, where the country’s energy mix is dominated by coal, and North Africa, with natural gas and oil accounting for almost 90% of subregion energy demand. Nevertheless, taking into account expanding African population, some progress has been made in reducing reliance on the inefficient use of traditional sources, as reflected in changing energy mix over the last two decades.
With the total energy demand rising significantly from 495 Mtoe in 2000 to 860 Mtoe in 2021, the share of traditional biomass in the African energy mix dropped from 37% to 33%. Despite its rise in absolute terms, there was observed a shift to modern biomass along with accelerated penetration of natural gas and oil, driven by strong electrification, industrial development, increasing vehicle fleet and the uptake of piped gas and LPG within households. Natural gas specifically contributed 26% to Africa’s energy demand growth between 2000 and 2021.As a result, in 2021, natural gas and oil represented around 40% of African energy mix, up from 31% in 2000. Natural gas overtook coal (which is extensively used in South Africa) as the third largest fuel in 2015 and reached 17% share in 2021, with Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria accounting for the overwhelming majority or around 80% of the continent’s natural gas demand.
The significance of natural gas in Africa In light of the need for a secure, affordable, and sustainable energy source to fuel economic growth and alleviate poverty in Africa, all the available energy options will continue to be relevant, although at changing energy mix over time. Among the diverse energy options for Africa, the abundance of natural gas and the proven efficiency of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) in power generation make it a suitable complement to renewables in Africa’s just transition plan.
However, realising the potential of natural gas requires significant upstream investment and long-term contracts, which some international investors were hesitant to undertake until recently, that IEA’s position emphasised the importance of expanding natural gas use for Africa’s industrialisation . African countries can leverage their natural gas resources to create a viable long-term investment pathway.
Prospects for natural gas demand growth in Africa
Africa’s growing population and urbanization, coupled with projected economic growth, make the energy sector crucial for the continent’s future. Primary energy demand is expected to rise by 82% by 2050, with natural gas accounting for 30% of the increase. Infrastructure development, power generation, industrial growth, and agricultural productivity will benefit from increased gas availability. Natural gas, alongside renewables and CCUS, will play a vital role in achieving economic growth, climate targets, and the UN’s SDGs in Africa. Capacity building and domestic technology transfer are key steps, along with comprehensive policies and circular carbon economy initiatives.
Conclusion
To achieve sustainable development and economic growth in Africa, a diverse energy mix is necessary, including abundant natural gas reserves alongside renewables and CCUS technology. Capacity building, skills transfer, and an enabling environment for education and research are crucial. African countries can also benefit from gas exports and regional integration to drive economic growth. Affordable energy is essential for Africa’s prosperity.