Modnii Magazin - - SUMMARY - By Anna Lebsak-Kleimans Ан­на Леб­сак-Клей­манс

Forecasts by the specialist regarding the development of the industry are becoming more positive, and even pessimistic forecasts give a positive momentum.

Anna Lebsak-Kleimans, CEO of Fashion Consulting Group, tells about the situation in the fashion industry market.

The market volume in ruble equivalent is comparable today with volumes of Y2011–2012

According to the analysis of the market, conducted by experts of Fashion Consulting Group, with the optimistic forecast (2017FO), the market growth will be up to 9% in rubles (11.5% in US dollars). This scenario can be implemented in case of further improvement of macroeconomic and political situations, increase of oil prices and stable appreciation of the ruble. Under the pessimistic forecast (2017FP), growth will be up to 5% in rubles and up to 4.8% in dollars, and this will happen if the existing rates of economic development and the stabilization of oil prices continue.

Luxury is the most stable of all segments

Luxury market came out on a stable basis. If there was negative dynamics (minus 9% in rubles) in 2015, then at the end of 2016 the market stabilized and came out at a plus of 1%. In many respects, this was due to the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The second factor is the reduction of external tourism, as a result part of the purchases in the luxury segment flowed to Russia. The third factor is that the sellers themselves changed the policy and began to restrain the price growth.

The market growth in 2017 will continue with the obligatory condition of stabilization of the ruble, positive dynamics of the domestic gross product and low inflation. Actually, the positive dynamics of 2016 arose mainly due to the fact that the ruble strengthened, became more expensive. The following factors can also be listed:

The emergence of deferred demand (which in the current crisis was possible only in the luxury segment and does not extend to the middle and lower). Rich people with income in foreign currency will continue to buy and, probably will increase the number of purchases in comparison with unstable 2014 and 2015.

Reduction in the share of shopping tourism on the background of price adjustment by key Russian luxury operators.

Development of global online trade in premium segment, which led to a leveling of prices for luxury in many countries.

Significant increase in the number of tourists from China and a service policy targeted specifically at this target audience, which has already borne fruit in 2016, in particular for Mercury.

The high-paid professionals will return to the high-paid goods due to the stabilization of the ruble. This category fell out in the crisis.

About 30% of the market for civilized trade falls on the major players.

At the moment, the top 10 players in the Russian fashion market stand out, accounting for 30% of the civilized market. The largest network of revenues for 2016 is the Inditex Group of companies – 71.4 billion rubles, or 4.2% of the total market. The second place is occupied by Open Company Austin with sales of 37.8 billion rubles. Third place is Gloria Jeans Corporation, 34 billion rubles.

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