Springtime in Athens

DEMIS Roussos picked a bad time to die. The Egyptian-born Greek singer, once immensely popular across much of Europe, passed away on Monday — a day when a great many Greeks, celebrating a watershed ushered in by the previous day’s election, were disin- clined to mourn.

The infectious scenes of jubilation witnessed in Athens and elsewhere once the results became clear make for a pleasant change from the austerity-induced glumness of recent years. The star of the moment is Alexis Tsipras, the 40-year-old excommunist at the helm of Syriza who promised an earthquake that would reverberate across Europe. It’s early days, of course, but the evidence thus far suggests he knew what he was talking about.

Greece has suffered much since the global financial meltdown of 2008, but it could easily be argued that its suffering stretches back a lot farther than that, to the civil war that blighted the nation in the aftermath of Nazi occupation to the corruption that messed up the economy after the brutal military rule inaugurated in 1967 ended seven years later.

Tsipras was born just days after the collapse of military rule in mid-1974. His first act as prime minister was to lay red roses at the Kaisarani war memorial in Athens that marks the spot where, 30 years before he was born, Nazi forces executed 200 political activists, most of them members of the communist resistance.

It was a symbolic act in more ways than one — not just a tribute to those who took up arms against German hegemony back in the 1940s but also a reaffirmation of Syriza’s determination to combat the strictures that originate today in Berlin and Brussels.

Syriza obtained about 36 percent of the popular vote, which may not seem like a huge deal, but represents a substantial mandate in the European context, given that it brought the party to the brink of a parliamentary majority — a level of support that single parties almost never muster anywhere on the continent.

Aided by a 50-seat bonus that under Greek law goes to the best-performing party, Syriza mustered 149 seats, two short of a level that would have enabled it to govern on its own. Its choice of coalition partner — the Independent Greeks, or Anel — caused some surprise and a spot of consternation, given that the latter is a decidedly rightwing outfit whereas Syriza is perceived as representing the radical left. On the other hand, Anel is a relatively small party, with 13 parliamentary seats, that happens to share Syriza’s anti-austerity agenda.

Many of its opinions are likely to justifiably be resented by Syriza’s core constituency, but Anel’s policymaking role will presumably be marginal; besides, Tsipras and his colleagues are bound to have weighed the pros and cons before entering into an agreement, and probably deserve the benefit of the doubt, at least for the time being.

The jubilations that Greece has witnessed in recent days — with substantial numbers of leftwing activists from neighboring nations pouring into Athens to share the moment — relate not just to the prospect of the country turning a new leaf in economic terms, but to the fact that Greek voters have made Europe sit up and pay attention. There can be little question that the new government’s progress will closely be followed across the continent, especially in countries that find themselves in a comparable situation.

Foremost among these is Spain, which will hold an election before the year is out. Spain’s Syriza equivalent is Podemos, whose leader, Pablo Iglesias, has aligned himself closely with Tsipras, and the party has lately been surging in opinion polls. Comparable outfits in Portugal, Italy and the Irish Republic, among other European nations, will also be keeping a close eye on Athens.

The latter is obliged to renew its bailout agreement by the end of next month, and Tsipras have vowed to rewrite the terms of settling Greece’s debt of close to €320 billion, representing 175 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). This has ballooned from 127 percent back in 2009, partly as a consequence of the austerity measures the nation was obliged to introduce in keeping with the dictates of the socalled troika — the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Commission.

Five years ago, the IMF predicted that the Greek economy would grow as a consequence of the conditions it had dictated. Instead, the economy has shrunk by about 25 percent, as have wages, and unemployment, which was supposed to peak at 15 percent in 2012, has instead risen to 28 percent, with youth unemployment estimated at 60 percent.

The Nobel prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman, describes Greece’s 2010 “standby agreement” with the IMF as “a remarkable document, the worst way. The troika, while pretending to be hardheaded and realistic, was peddling an economic fantasy. And the Greek people have been paying the price for those elite delusions…”

Whether Syriza can successfully renegotiate the debt — ideally via an arrangement whereby a substantial proportion of it is effectively wiped out — remains to be seen, most likely in the next few weeks: a period that incorporates the European Union summit scheduled for February 12, where Tsipras will likely be the only man without a tie. He has vowed to abjure that absurd sartorial appendage at least for as long as an agreement restoring Greek dignity cannot be worked out with the EU.

It would be wise of Europe to respond sympathetically to the Greek chorus, but it may find itself too closely wedded to the neoliberal “norm” to offer anything more than a marginal gesture. That could set the stage not just for a Greek tragedy but a gradually unfolding European disaster.