Rebound in crude prices to boost Saudi export revenues
Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency’s (SAMA) foreign reserve assets increased by $2 billion to reach $730 billion in January, according to researchers.
The increase follows four consecutive monthly declines, which totaled 8 $11.9 billion since reaching a peak of $741 billion in August, said Jadwa Investment’s latest chart book.
“The decline in the previous four months was likely caused by the fall in oil export revenues, while government spending was kept at an elevated level,” said the Jadwa economists.
Brent reached $62 per barrel at the end of last month, partially supported by bullish sentiment as a result of month-on-month declines in the US oil rig count although this did not prevent crude stockpiling in the US, which meant WTI’s gains in February were more modest.
“Looking forward, we expect the rebound in oil prices is likely to improve Saudi oil export revenues in coming months,” stated the Jadwa team led by Fahad M. Alturki, chief economist and head of research.
The Tadawul All-Share Index (TASI) rose by 4.9 percent, month-on-month, in February as investor sentiment was boosted by Brent oil stabilizing around the $60 per barrel mark.
Saudi crude production remained unchanged, month-on-month, in January but production declined in both Libya, due to a resumption in civil conflict, and in Iraq, due to logistical reasons, added the Jadwa report. A rise in the official selling prices (OSPs) to Asian customers led to a decline in Saudi crude exports in December, month-on-month.
China replaced the US as the largest source for Saudi imports during 2014, according to the report.
It said the imports from China grew from 7 percent in 2004 to 14 percent in 2014 a share of total Saudi imports, while the rest of the major trade partners saw their export shares to Saudi decline during the same period.
Nonoil exports for December declined slightly compared to the previous month, but remained unchanged, year-on-year.
New letters of credit opened indicate that import growth is likely to be mild in coming months, said the report.
Jadwa’s chart book for March also stated that broad money supply growth fell in January, owing to slow growth in bank deposits. Year-on-year growth in total deposits for both the private sector and the government slowed. The downward trend affected both demand and time and savings deposits.
Slower growth occurred to both demand and time and savings deposits, which grew by 10.2 percent and 12.2 percent year-onyear respectively.
“We believe that this trend is likely to reverse in coming months due to the recently announced fiscal package, ” said the report.
Data for January shows that CPI slowed for the fifth consecutive month to 2.2 percent, year-on-year, according to the chart book.
It said that foodstuffs continued to slow, year-on-year, for the fourth consecutive month to reach 2.1 percent, while housing inflation accelerated to 2.7 percent, year-on-year.
Core inflation slowed to 2 percent yearon-year in January, down from 2.3 percent yea-on-year in the previous month. Most components of the core index recorded a mild slowdown.
According to the report, bank lending to the private sector posted a healthy rise in January, resuming its monthly growth following a decline in the previous two months. The share of credit with short-term maturities continued its gradual decline. Healthy growth in lending coupled with a monthly decline in deposits led to an increase in the loan-to-deposit ratio.
Short-term lending declined as a proportion of the total to 49 percent in January, compared to 53 percent during the same period last year. This could indicate that liquidity in the private sector is further improving, as companies shift from financing day-to-day operations to financing longer-term capital expenditure.
The TASI rose by 4.9 percent, month-onmonth, in February. The Saudi benchmark stock index was up 5.2 percent since the end of 2014, although its performance in February was still at the lower end when compared to most global indices. This was the TASI’s second consecutive monthly rise since September 2014.
Market turnover averaged SR9.7 billion per day in February, up 20 percent monthon-month, the highest turnover average since August 2014. Banks and petchem stocks saw the largest turnover by sector, with the smaller sectors seeing higher turnover to market capitalization,
The TASI’s price to earnings (PE) trended upwards in February to 18.5, rising above the two year average of 17.2. The TASI’s PE remains on the higher side when compared to major and regional indices but dividend yield is comparatively better than many emerging market indices.
Eight out of 15 sectors recorded positive performance in February. The energy sector was the best performer as it benefitted from fresh calls for reforms in subsidies. Real estate and industrial investment benefitted from improved sentiment over oil prices.
The worst performing sector was hotels, which was affected by seasonality, according to the report.
The cement sector was down due profittaking, telecoms is still suffering from previous regulatory issues and hotels was affected by seasonality.
PMI was almost unchanged in January at 57.8, compared to 57.9 in the previous month, showing sustained growth in both output and new orders.
Monthly production for both steel and cement rose to an all time high, according to the chart book
Year-on-year growth in cement production and sales was strong at 15.3 percent, and 16.1 percent respectively.
Cement production reached an all-time high in January, with a total of 5.5 million tons of cement produced. Cement sales fell by 2.9 percent in January, but was 16.1 percent higher than the same period last year.
China replaced the US as the largest source for Saudi imports during 2014, according to the report. It said the imports from China grew from 7 percent in 2004 to 14 percent in 2014 a share of total Saudi imports.