FORECASTS

DOE and EIA forecasts and long-term projections are routinely criticized from all sides within the energy industry, mostly for partisan and lobbying reasons.

Fossil fuel producers claim they overstate the potential growth of renewables and understate the future role of oil and gas.

Clean energy advocates make the opposite criticism, claiming DOE/EIA are too optimistic about oil and gas and do not appreciate the transformational potential of wind, solar and other new technologies.

In reality, these are disputes about policy preferences and assumptions dressed up as technical disputes about data and forecasting.

Long-range energy forecasts have always been controversial and subject to tremendous uncertainty and large errors.

Energy forecasts are both complex (in the sense they have a large number of highly dynamic elements) and controversial (in the sense they can be used to justify particularly policy choices).

“Disagreement over estimates is not the cause but the consequence of disagreement over basic policy perspective.”

The fact that DOE/EIA is equally criticized by fossil fuel and clean energy advocates suggests the agency is trying hard to discharge its statutory mandate to be neutral. — John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own.