Kurd issue deepens US-Turkey fault line in Syria
Turkey’s ruling AKP government expects a major change in Syria policy under Trump by stopping support for the YPG, but experts see no chance of this happening.
Aykan Erdemir, senior fellow at the Washingtonbased Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Ankara’s objection to US cooperation with the YPG has already affected the campaign against Daesh by delaying the Raqqa offensive.
“Turkey will continue to put pressure on the US, aiming to prevent the YPG’s participation in the antiDaesh efforts,” Erdemir told Arab News.
Washington is unlikely to shift course, and US forces will continue to work with the YPG, he said.
“Erdogan has already proven that he can be surprisingly flexible on the Kurdish issue by working with PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan during Turkey’s Kurdish peace process, and also by hosting the leader of the PYD — the political wing of the YPG — Salih Muslim in Turkey in 2014 and 2015,” Erdemir added.
He said more recently, one of Erdogan’s senior advisers asked whether the Syrian Kurds could be “another (Masoud) Barzani,” replicating Erdogan’s establishment of a win-win relationship with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq.
“So the Turkish president might pull one of his signature foreign policy U-turns following the Raqqa operation, and search for a new modus vivendi with the Syrian Kurds,” Erdemir said.
For the moment, Ankara is not expected to take part in any joint operation in Raqqa if it involves the YPG. But leaving Turkey, a critical ally and NATO member, out of the operation is seen as risky.
Experts say tension between the anti-Daesh coalition members plays into Daesh’s hands. “Suffering from mutual distrust, US-Turkey relations are now more transactional than strategic, and short-term interests outweigh long-term strategic considerations on both sides,” Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara director of the German Marshall Fund of the US, told Arab News.
“The US defense establishment… is of the opinion that cooperation on the ground with the PYD/YPG against Daesh in Syria is too valuable militarily to scrap.”
At a time when generals, not diplomats, have the upper hand in foreign policy formulation in the US, it is difficult for Erdogan to persuade Trump otherwise, said Unluhisarcikli.
Galip Dalay — senior associate fellow on Turkey and Kurdish affairs at Al-Jazeera Center for Studies, and research director at Al-Sharq Forum — told Arab News that Erdogan is unlikely get what he wants in his meeting with Trump.
“The backbone of the Raqqa operation is composed of the SDF, which is governed by the YPG,” said Dalay.
“There’s a widespread expectation that a quasifederal entity will be formed when Raqqa is taken back, and Arabs will be a majority in that region.”
The US has given the YPG a key role in stabilization and reconstruction plans in the post-Raqqa period, Dalay said.
“As long as Turkey doesn’t persuade the Pentagon, which guides anti-Daesh efforts in the Trump administration, the US will continue to partner with the YPG.”
But Dalay said this will not cut Turkey off from the Arab world if it pursues effective, constructive policies with countries in the region.
“Whether the YPG issue becomes a barrier or a bridge depends on Turkey’s relationship with the YGP and PKK in the upcoming period,” he said.
“If tensions continue, the YPG issue will become a barrier for Turkey to reach out to the region.”
But Dalay said if Turkey focuses on a political resolution of its conflict with the Kurds, it can build a bridge with the region that will depend on good economic relations in the reconstruction period.