A year Pakistan would rather forget

Despite the crises of 2017, a free and fair general election next year could provide political stability and help the country to address its many domestic and external issues.

IT has not been the best of times for Pakistan as it lurched from one crisis to another in 2017, and it faces an uncertain political future. The political crisis stemming from the Panama Papers scandal, with the judicial removal from office of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his trial on corruption charges, threaten to derail the fragile democratic process.

With arrest warrants for the Sharif family and the finance minister facing indictment for living beyond his means, the situation is fast becoming untenable. What happens next is not hard to guess — perhaps it is the unraveling of the entire system. The state has seldom been so fractured.

The “accountability process” targeting the country’s most powerful political dynasty has widened the fault lines in the existing power structure. The judicial action against the Sharifs with the apparent backing of the security establishment has brought the clash of institutions to a head. Undoubtedly, the security establishment has been sucked into the crisis, which becomes more significant given the strains in civil-military relations that had cast their shadow over the third Sharif term.

The trust deficit that existed from the very outset persisted despite the change of the army guard twice. There have been some unresolved issues and Sharif’s own style of personalized governance had also been a major irritant. The generals seem more comfortable working with the new prime minister, who has established at least a semblance of the institutional way of governance.

The deteriorating economic situation is also a cause for concern. The stock market, once one of the most lucrative in the emerging economies, has plummeted. The growing balance of payments deficit has caused severe pressure on foreign exchange reserves that may force the country to seek an IMF bailout. The saving grace has been the substantial progress on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. The huge Chinese investment has helped Pakistan to overcome its acute energy problem, but it the economy still has a long way to go.

After a brief lull, terrorism is rearing its ugly head again. From security installations to educational institutions and religious places, nothing has been spared. Most militant attacks have been claimed by groups affiliated with Daesh, whose footprints were found in several terrorist attacks, although the government has downplayed such reports.

It may be true that Daesh has no organizational structure in Pakistan, but the threat should not be underestimated. Reports of an emerging nexus between members of banned militant groups and Daesh must be taken more seriously.

That raises serious questions about the state’s capacity and willingness to counter rising religious extremism. The authority of the state virtually crumbled when hundreds of zealots belonging to a new radical Islamist group brought the capital to a standstill for several weeks. What is more troubling is that the flames of bigotry are sweeping across other parts of the country, creating a dangerous confluence of religion and politics.

With a downturn in its relations with the US, growing tension with India and conflict with Afghanistan unresolved, Pakistan has been in choppy waters on the external front too. The Trump administration’s new Afghan and South Asia policy has deepened the regional tensions.

The toughening US stance on Pakistan has further inflamed an already troubled relationship between Islamabad and Washington. The US threat to take the Afghan war inside Pakistan has made it more difficult for Pakistani authorities to win public support for cooperation with the US. There is no sign of improvement in relations, particularly with the growing insurgency in Afghanistan. Both Kabul and Washington accuse Pakistan of harboring Afghan Taliban.

There is, however, a ray of hope for Pakistan returning to political stability with the general election in the middle of next year. A free and fair election could lead to peaceful transition from one elected government to the next, and help Pakistan to address its many challenges, both domestic and external.

Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. Twitter: @hidhussain

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