Turkey may work with Syria’s Assad if elected fairly
Renewed Ankara-Damascus ties will contribute to reconstruction of Syrian cities through Turkish companies, says analyst
In a potentially major policy shift, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Sunday said Ankara will consider working with Syrian President Bashar Assad if he wins a free and fair election.
Ankara had previously called on Assad to step down following the start of the uprising against him in 2011.
There are suggestions that the U-turn may be due to Turkey’s opposition to growing Kurdish influence on both sides of the border.
“Turkey can’t solve the (Kurdish) Democratic Union Party (PYD) problem with the US alone,” said Timur Akhmetov, a researcher at the Russian International Affairs Council. “A start of dialogue with Assad … seems like a logical step.”
Turkey will also be driven by ambitions to install friendly political figures in the Syrian government, Akhmetov added.
“Renewed relations between Turkey and Syria will contribute to reconstruction of (Syrian) cities with Turkish companies and bilateral trade,” he said.
A UN-led plan to draft reforms to Syria’s constitution, laying the ground for fresh elections, is expected to be established within weeks.
Under the plan, the Syrian regime will choose 50 members of the Constitutional Committee, with Turkey proposing 50 Syrian opposition members and the UN nominating a further 50 people — comprising academics, experts and civil society members — to oversee the reforms.
Last week, Ankara said it will launch within days a military campaign east of the Euphrates River against the Syrian-Kurdish People’s Protection Units ( YPG), whose political wing is the PYD.
“Ankara may intend that Russia rhetorically supports such a campaign in exchange for a positive message about Assad’s theoretical chances of staying in power,” said Akhmetov.
But mistrust between Ankara and Damascus remains a significant hurdle to smoother diplomatic relations.
Last month, Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad demanded that Turkish “occupation” forces leave the country.
He said Damascus would not count on Turkish assurances because Ankara’s intentions are “colonial” and “expansionist.”
Aron Lund, a Syria analyst at the Century Foundation, said he does not think Turkey’s expressed willingness to work with Assad constitutes a big change.
“What Cavusoglu seems to be saying is that Syria should have a democratic election, as is called for in UN Security Council resolution 2254, and that the winner — even if it’s Assad — could be considered legitimate by Turkey,” he told Arab News.
Cavusoglu simply responded to a hypothetical question, Lund said, adding: “For now, Turkey seems content to continue along the current course of action, working with Russia to secure its interests in Syria and relaying messages to Damascus through Moscow and Tehran.”
Ankara still refuses to talk directly to Damascus to seek an end to the conflict in Syria. Sinan Hatahet of Al-Sharq Forum in Istanbul said Turkey’s stance is conditional upon elections in Syria.
“Previously, Turkish officials made it clear that they don’t believe that the regime would let elections happen,” he told Arab News.
“It’s still difficult to believe there will be any reconciliation between the parties for now.”