Turkey’s options in Idlib diminishing

Idlib came to the forefront of the Syrian crisis late last year as the Damascus government, with Russia’s massive military support, decided to extend its control to the province, where armed opposition factions of all types had been amassing for years.

However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thought that a military operation in Idlib would cause a human tragedy. It would also cause internal problems for Turkey as an attack at Idlib would move millions toward the nearby Turkish border.

So Erdogan thought that it was worth trying to persuade some of the opposition factions settled in Idlib to withdraw in order to isolate the more extremist groups, especially Jabhat Al-Nusra — renamed Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). He raised this question on Sept. 17 last year in a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and persuaded his host to prevent Syria from carrying out the military operation.

Putin agreed, but also set firm dates for the steps to be taken.

The withdrawal of the rebel troops was due to be completed by Oct. 15.

The agreement could not be fully implemented because, on the first day of 2019, the HTS attacked the other opposition factions and expanded the territory it was controlling. One notable group defeated by the

HTS was its former ally the Nour Al-Din Al-Zenki Movement.

This is a setback for Ankara because the Al-Zenki Movement included many Syrian Turkmen groups. Some members of the defeated group joined the Turkeysupported National Liberation Front, while others fled into the Syrian province of Afrin, which is controlled by the Turkish army.

The clash between the HTS and the Al-Zenki Movement proved that Turkey had been too optimistic when it volunteered to avoid a human tragedy in Idlib. Putin will probably continue his cooperation with Turkey in Idlib, but will now be less eager to stop the Syrian government from carrying on with its attacks against the terrorist organizations.

In other words, we are now back to where we were prior to the Sept. 17 meeting between Erdogan and Putin. The only difference is that HTS now controls a greater area in Idlib.

For Turkey, the HTS attack in Idlib changed several parameters. Ankara will probably not insist on withholding the Syrian army’s attack. Instead it will focus more on preventing the refugee flow toward the Turkish border.

Recently, Turkey started to voice more loudly its plans to carry out a military operation to the east of the Euphrates in Syria. However, US President Donald Trump decided to pull America’s military presence out of Syria and asked Erdogan to eliminate the remnants of Daesh. It is unclear whether Turkey will be able to continue to perform its observation mission in Idlib, its military operation to the east of the Euphrates and fight Daesh all at the same time. But what is clear is that its options in Idlib continue to diminish.