DR Congo on a perilous journey
In the early hours of Jan. 10, election authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo finally announced that Felix Tshisekedi, leader of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress, won the election held on Dec. 30 with 38.57 percent of the vote. If Tshisekedi’s victory is confirmed, an opposition politician will assume power after 18 years of rule by President Joseph Kabila. But it does not follow that peace and prosperity will automatically ensue.
Kabila assumed power in January 2001 after his father, Laurent, was assassinated. Over Joseph Kabila’s 18-year rule, the DRC has remained fragile. Little has changed for ordinary Congolese, 80 percent of whom live on less than $1.25 a day.
Tshisekedi has some serious and immediate hurdles to overcome if he is to be inaugurated. First, he will have to contend with accusations surrounding the legitimacy of the election, which was peppered with irregularities.
Furthermore, two political heavyweights who were barred from participating in the election, Jean-Pierre Bemba and Moise Katumbi, back Tshisekedi’s closest opponent, Martin Fayulu, who won 34.83 percent of the vote. Western media widely reported on Fayulu’s popularity and his likelihood of winning, and he is contesting the election’s legitimacy, charging that Tshisekedi made a backroom deal with Kabila.
Without an outright victory, it is vital for Tshisekedi to solicit the support and collaboration of the broader opposition in order to bolster his position and minimize the risk of unrest. An even more difficult task for Tshisekedi, if he is to manage a peaceful transition and stay alive long enough to lead the country, may be to secure the acquiescence of Kabila’s regime. There was a pervasive sense in the run-up to the election that Kabila would stop at nothing to maintain his grip on the presidency.
Tshisekedi will also have to reach out to the region’s leaders in order to secure the political transition. With the eastern DRC experiencing ongoing violence involving Rwandan, Burundian and Ugandan forces, as well as rebel forces opposing those countries’ regimes, the cooperation of Presidents Paul Kagame of Rwanda, Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda remains crucial.
South Africa and Angola, too, enjoy close relations with the
DRC and their acceptance of the presidential vote will be vital to ensuring regional stability. South African Foreign Minister Lindiwe Sisulu has not so far backed Tshisekedi, instead supporting calls for a unity government to achieve a transition of power.
Tshisekedi’s apparent victory, and the promise of a new government, should be a cause for celebration, at home and throughout the Congolese diaspora. But the transition now facing the DRC is certain to be long, perilous and frustrating. The celebrations may prove shortlived if no workable reconciliation among the country’s opposing forces is achieved in the coming days and weeks.