UK-EU Brexit talks deadlocked
There are fewer than 50 days to go until the UK leaves the EU, and we are no nearer to agreeing a deal than we were the day after the referendum on June 24, 2016. Alas, the country seems more divided than ever.
Two weeks ago, Parliament voted for the Brady amendment, which instructed the government to renegotiate the so-called Northern Irish “backstop” and replace it with “alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border.”
The reaction from Brussels was a clear “no, nein, non, nie.” The withdrawal agreement was not up for renegotiation.
Last week, Prime Minister Theresa May dispatched herself to Belfast to find out just how much of an issue the open borders on the island are. On the same day, European Council President Donald Tusk stirred up a hornets’ nest when he remarked: “I’ve been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely.” It reflected the EU’s frustration at the negotiations and at the apparent unwillingness of Her Majesty’s Government to listen to the clearly delineated EU position. Tusk’s comments unleashed a real firestorm and did the EU position little favor.
When May visited Brussels the next day, her demands met with resistance. Worse, opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn had written a letter to the prime minister advocating that Labour might support her Brexit deal if the UK stayed in the customs union. This, however, is a clear no-go zone for the Tory party’s Brexiteers. The timing of Corbyn’s letter was a masterclass in how to undermine the government’s negotiating position. The EU appears open to the UK remaining in the customs union and will discuss the political declaration — a loosely worded document that puts down the guidelines for the negotiation of the future relationship between the UK and the EU. However, it is standing firm on blocking a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement.
Meanwhile, “back at the ranch,” politicians have been acting up. Corbyn’s refusal to support a second referendum risks splitting the Labour Party. In the Conservative Party, meanwhile, hardline Brexiteers and supporters of a second referendum are at each other’s throats. The “original Brexiteer,” Nigel Farage, has backed a new Brexit-supporting party to put himself in pole position in case the UK’s departure is delayed.
While all of this is going on, we can hear the tick-tock of the Brexit clock: As of Sunday, 47 days and counting. There seems to be no parliamentary majority for the prime minister’s Brexit package, whatever it may be, and the talks with Brussels are deadlocked. The government is now floating the idea of resuming talks with the EU on the margins of the EU-Arab League summit in Cairo on February 24 -25 and postponing the vote in Parliament until after that. This has a whiff of brinkmanship, for the closer we push final negotiations and parliamentary voting procedures to the deadline, the likelier the UK is to leave without an agreement.