Why the big powers’ eyes are on Africa
Next month’s Africa-Russia summit in Sochi hosted by Vladimir Putin is an example of the growing focus on the continent by the world’s leading powers. As Moscow seeks to expand its international influence, Africa is a key target for the Russian president, not least for geopolitical reasons.
However, it is economically that Africa is coming of age, with a growing number of key emerging markets. Six of the world’s fastest growing countries are there: Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Mozambique, Tanzania and Rwanda. The
IMF asserts that in the years to 2023, Africa’s overall growth prospects will be among the best in the world.
It is therefore little wonder that China is showing perhaps the greatest interest of all in Africa, aiming to better connect its Belt and Road initiative with the continent’s development. Beijing’s main leaders (the president, premier and foreign minister) have made about 80 visits to over 40 African countries in the past decade. Trade between the two powers has risen from $765 million four decades ago to about $170 billion today, and about 40 African countries have signed on to Belt and Road. Beijing is also a frequent host of ChinaAfrica summits, including one last year attended by more than 50 heads of state. This is a model that Putin now appears keen to embrace, to entrench Moscow’s foothold in the continent; Russia’s trade with Africa has already risen from $5.7 billion in 2009 to $17.4 billion in 2017.
Donald Trump has been rightly criticized for not having a coherent Africa policy, despite former national security adviser John Bolton’s assertion last year that Beijing and Moscow were already “interfering with US military operations and pose a significant threat to US national security interests” in the continent. For example, Kenya is a key US partner, not least in the campaign against terrorism, and President Uhuru Kenyatta is one of the few African leaders invited to the White House during Trump’s presidency. But about 70 percent of Kenya’s external debt is owed to Beijing, and many large infrastructure projects are being built by Chinese companies.
It is not just China and Russia that are showing greater focus on the continent. Key nations such as India, the Gulf states, Turkey, France and Germany are showering Africa with interest, giving countries there more diplomatic options than just Beijing and Washington. Under Emmanuel Macron, for instance, Paris is seeking to boost ties with its former colonies while embedding relations with the continent’s biggest economies, and Angela Merkel is a frequent visitor to Africa. The UK, too, with a possible Brexit on the horizon, is raising its profile. Prince Harry and his wife Meghan Markle’s current trip, their first since becoming parents, is widely seen as a success, with visits to South Africa, Botswana, Angola and Malawi showcasing key humanitarian projects that the prince has long championed. It follows Theresa May’s trip last year to Africa, including the first visit to Kenya by a UK prime minister since 1988, in what she called “a unique opportunity at a unique moment.” This underlines that, for Britain, the continent has assumed new importance as London seeks to consolidate ties with key non-EU nations as it leaves the bloc.
However, it is not solely through the lens of economics that London views the relationship with the continent. UK policymakers also highlight the need for greater African security ties with the West to tackle instability across the region. This includes the threat from
Boko Haram and Al-Shabab militants, with UK troops having a role in countering them as part of an alliance.
This illustrates that, while the upsurge of attention to Africa by Western powers and
China largely reflects economic calculations, broader political considerations are also in play. From Brexit to the great power game underway between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing, interest in the continent is only likely to grow into the 2020s, especially if it continues to fulfil its significant economic potential.