Brexit moves one step forward, one step back
Boris Johnson scored a symbolic win, but also suffered a significant reversal, in Tuesday’s dramatic night of House of Commons voting, which will most likely delay the UK’s departure from the EU once again. For the first time, MPs voted for a specific Brexit outcome — Johnson’s tweaked version of the EU withdrawal bill — but legislators rightly rejected by 322 votes to 308 the proposed breakneck speed to get the legislation through Parliament by Oct. 31.
As many MPs mentioned, the rushed timetable appeared to show contempt for parliamentary democracy, despite the idea of “taking back control” being one of the central arguments of Brexiteers during the 2016 referendum.
Nonetheless, Johnson has scored a symbolic win with his victory by 329 votes to 299 at the second reading of the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill. That success reflects several factors, including the fact that his renegotiation has taken out the so-called Northern Ireland “backstop” to avoid postBrexit customs controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. This enabled him to win the support of hardcore Conservative Brexiteers who voted against Theresa May’s deal, while also gaining the support of 19 Labour MPs.
However, it now seems very likely that the UK will not leave the EU on Oct. 31, as Johnson previously promised “do or die.” While this is a political embarrassment of his own making, it is a necessary step for MPs to properly scrutinize his legislation beyond the ridiculous three days Johnson proposed.
The reason why the UK is now very unlikely to leave the EU this month, unless there is an unanticipated no-deal Brexit, is that Johnson said on Tuesday that he would “pause” progress on his withdrawal bill. The government has said that, instead, it will accelerate planning for a potential no-deal scenario, while there were two days of debate on last week’s Queen’s Speech followed by the House of Commons not sitting on Friday.
Johnson is also engaging EU leaders, especially European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and President of the
European Council Donald Tusk. The latter has said he is recommending that the EU grants an extension to the Brexit deadline following the UK’s request. This is likely to be until the end of January. One possibility is a “flextension” that takes the UK’s membership into 2020, but gives an option for the UK leaving sooner if Johnson can get his legislation through Parliament.
Yet, if the EU proposes a long extension, Johnson could seek to engineer a general election, as was mooted by Downing Street this week. The earliest date the poll could take place is Nov. 28 because of the need for five clear weeks before a ballot. Although a December election has not been held in the UK since 1923, this is an increasing possibility. There were several reasons why legislators were wary of granting Johnson a fast-track process to potentially get the legislation approved. Firstly, the government’s “confidence and supply” partner, the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), criticized the implications of Johnson’s deal for that nation. The DUP’s central critique is that, under the proposed deal, a new customs border would in effect be introduced between England, Scotland plus Wales, and the island of Ireland (Northern Ireland and the Republic). The core DUP concern is that Northern Ireland would be left as a semi-detached part of the UK. A second concern is of legislators across the political spectrum over a loophole in Johnson’s plan, which would allow the UK to crash out of the EU without a deal at the end of 2020, after a transition period, under World Trade Organization terms if a new EU-UK trade agreement has not been agreed. To that end, dozens of legislators had been liaising with Downing Street in a bid to give Parliament more control over the next phase of the Brexit negotiations, if Johnson’s deal is ultimately agreed. This includes MPs being able to vote for an extension to the talks at the end of 2020.
Johnson’s symbolic victory was overshadowed as he became a prisoner of his own rhetoric, with his Oct. 31 deadline now unlikely to be met. With an Article 50 extension probable, a key question that will now shape UK politics alongside Brexit is whether the added uncertainty of an election will come before Christmas or be kicked out to 2020.