Coronavirus — next steps

While in Islamabad, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed confidence in China’s efforts to combat the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, or COVID-19. The pandemic is now spreading due to lack of preparation, the incubation period of the pathogen, and additional factors such as misinformation.

The shutdown of human mobility in a country such as China is remarkable, especially in the conditions shown on state television. It is estimated that 760 million people are living under some kind of residential lockdown. It is one of the largest quarantines ever involving civil response, even in China. To do this, almost a month after the outbreak, a major error, Beijing is relying on local party officials, police and so-called grid workers.

Under these conditions in China, rules can be random and enforcement arbitrary by officials made up of grassroots communist party officials known as “grid workers.” At a village level, many of these officials are setting up barricades to control the flow of individuals and effectively shut down human mobility.

The economic front is messy and will have an impact on the economies of Northeast Asia and beyond. China and Japan are already reporting drops in their economic output and South Korea is facing a similar slump.

The interruption to the supply chain is reverberating sharply.

The anti-disease measures closed factories that supply the world with smartphones, furniture, shoes, toys and household appliances.

The coronavirus is reducing China’s total petroleum and liquid fuels demand by an average of 190,000 b/d in 2020.

When SARS struck, China was entering a history-making boom powered by construction and exports. Growth peaked at a blistering 14.2 percent percent in 2007. By contrast, the latest virus hit in the middle of a slowdown. Streets in Beijing and other major Chinese cities are still empty and eerily quiet. Even if Chinese auto manufacturing and other business resumes as planned, activity will not be back to normal until at least mid-March with possibly no real recovery until May or June, or perhaps later. Nobody knows right now, and many multinational firms have been caught unprepared for such an event in terms of economic impact.

It is important to remember that the virus is not just an epidemic but is also becoming part of an “infodemic.” Fake news about the coronavirus can be highly damaging. Only primary trusted peer-reviewed medical sources, especially the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) should be read. Politicians will exploit this situation, causing more damage based on self-interest. Around the globe, some countries will be able to handle the coronavirus for a time. The forecast is that through the early summer, virus cases will begin to decline, along with the unexpected social and economic reverberations caused by this pandemic.

Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, DC. Twitter: @tkarasik

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