With US preoccupied and Europe weak, China begins to advance

History certainly teaches us that power abhors a vacuum. Geopolitics goes on, as it has done since the days of Athens and Sparta, whatever the calamity. In the case of the coronavirus catastrophe, ironically it is China — the initial propagator of the virus, whose two-month cover-up allowed it to spread undetected to much of the world — that stands to benefit most. Sometimes history favors the culpable. And Beijing has lost no time in taking advantage of the sluggish responses to the virus emanating from both Brussels and Washington. In the case of the EU, the coronavirus crisis is ruthlessly exposing its flaws: It is too slow, too divided, and — when push comes to shove — not enough of a union at all.

America, as all continental powers tend to be, is so preoccupied with itself and the impending hit it is about to take that it has spared nary a thought for its besieged European allies. In essence, the crisis is ruthlessly making clear weaknesses already present in the international system well before it struck: Europe is both weak and less than a real union, while the US has lost interest in Europe as its gaze turns to Asia — with much of the world’s future growth as well as much of its global risk. In both cases, the coronavirus has merely clarified the strategic vacuum that had already been quietly growing.

It is at this critical moment that an assured China has chosen to pounce. This past week, as I have turned on the Italian evening news, I have been greeted by the strange sight of Russian, Chinese and even Cuban (of all places) aid trucks wheeling off of runways with medical supplies for the plague-stricken Italian people. China may be culpable in spreading the coronavirus, but Beijing is determined to win the post-virus narrative, while the self-involved transatlantic alliance sleeps.

Beijing is fully energized in winning over the world — whatever the facts of the virus’ providence — with two basic facts. First, due to its ruthless but effective authoritarian response and the innate discipline of its people, it has successfully seen off the virus. It is willing to share its know-how with the rest of the world, as the propaganda victory is apparent: In this newly dangerous world, Beijing is making it clear that its success illustrates that dictatorship is a more effective system than chaotic democracies.

Second, the very global time frame of the coronavirus itself economically favors the Chinese. As the first to be hit by and get through the virus, China will be ramping up its economy, even as later-hit Europe and North America are struggling with the plague. This means China will have a huge economic advantage in coming online first in the post-coronavirus world.

So, into this global pandemic and geopolitical vacuum, China has begun to play the strategic game of dividing an already fractured Europe and making it clear to Italians everywhere that their fears about Donald Trump and America’s fecklessness toward the transatlantic alliance are real.

One final positive thought, which ought to stand as the West’s collective propaganda riposte to the Chinese: As the world races to find a vaccine for the coronavirus, do not bet against the Germans, Japanese, British or Americans getting there first, ahead of the Chinese; and getting there better, in terms of a safer, more comprehensive product. Western democratic states have a far better record of innovation than communist dictatorships.