Europe’s Middle Eastern decline

The last couple of weeks in Libya have demonstrated the role of hard power in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as Turkey and Russia have increased their military support to rival factions. These developments have highlighted the growing role of Russia and regional actors at the expense of Europe, as Europe’s role as a strategic actor in the region declines.

Europe has long been a key player in the MENA region. In recent history, European countries acted as colonial powers, drawing the Middle East’s modern borders. That era gradually ended, marked by the UK’s withdrawal as the primary naval presence in the Arabian Gulf in 1971, but Europe continued to be an important strategic actor in the region and maintained significant political influence.

In the last decade, Europe’s role in the MENA region has significantly declined, even while it retains economic and cultural influence. The European response — or lack thereof — to events in Libya, Syria, Iran, and Israel and Palestine has undermined its role. While Barack Obama was US president, Europe remained influential, if only because Washington wanted European partners to support its actions in the MENA region. Europe played a role in US policy toward Libya and Syria and particularly toward Iran. Europe helped to negotiate and implement the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. When Donald Trump became president, he soon withdrew from the JCPOA despite European objections. For years, Europe appeared to be important in addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, playing a role in some negotiations and providing significant aid. However, the Trump administration’s approach again demonstrated that much of Europe’s past influence depended on its importance to Washington. Multiple factors have led to Europe’s loss of political and strategic influence. The Trump administration has made it clear that the US does not need Europe, which damages the latter’s influence globally. European countries have often failed to coordinate their foreign policy, undermining their potential leverage. In a world with diminishing space for political moderation, Europe’s efforts to be a balancing influence gain little traction.

Europe maintains important economic and cultural relations in the MENA region. However, this is insufficient for it to remain a key strategic actor. For Europe, the consequences are negative. The MENA region poses important risks and offers opportunities, and Europe’s ability to shape those is diminishing. It has less ability to prevent or respond to refugee and migration flows, nuclear weapon threats, terrorist risks, and more. For those who share similar values around human rights and democracy, Europe’s declining influence is also a negative development. However, for those who see Europe’s legacy in the MENA region as a mixed bag or mostly having negative impacts, Europe’s declining power is a positive development. It leaves more room for regional powers to act independently and with more influence. However, Russia is trying to fill the power vacuum, which may raise new concerns for regional actors.

Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant.

Twitter: @KBAresearch

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