Evidence piles up that Sweden may be on wrong path
For most of the last few months, the only place in Europe where you could go to the gym, the cinema or a bar was in Sweden. Swedes did not have to resort to watching online fitness gurus, baking banana bread or only seeing friends and family on video calls. Think of risk-taking countries and you do not think of Sweden. Yet it is Sweden that has, almost alone, opted not to engage in any form of lockdown to fight the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). It is a gamble. The government of Stefan Lofven has instead merely issued guidelines on social distancing and outlawed gatherings of more than 50 people.
The official Swedish view is that COVID-19 cannot be defeated without an effective vaccine, so it is a disease that society will have to learn to live with. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, argues: “You can’t keep a lockdown going for months — it’s impossible.” But has it worked? The current picture is not favorable, with 4,395 deaths and more than 37,000 cases as of Monday in a country with a population of about 10 million. At the start, Sweden’s Public Health Agency enjoyed massive support. Tegnell was a celebrity figure, his image on mugs and T-shirts. While most people still back the authorities, ever more are fearful. It is not as if Sweden was not capable of sustaining a lockdown. A rule-abiding society like Sweden’s perhaps could have handled a strict lockdown better than others.
How has Sweden fared in comparison to its Nordic neighbors? Norway and Finland last week had mortality rates of 4.42 and 5.58 deaths per 100,000 people, respectively, whereas Sweden’s was 39.57, which was even above the US’ figure of 30.02. It is hard to argue that Sweden has got it right when its death rate is almost 10 times higher than Norway’s. In part, Sweden’s figures are a result of a failure to protect the elderly in care homes; something the UK has also suffered from. Denmark and Norway have announced dates for the reopening of their borders, but not for travel to and from Sweden. Estonia, Latvia and Greece are doing likewise.
Take Greece — a country typically looked down on by the richer northern EU states. Despite its lack of resources, a tough crackdown has led to one of the lowest infection rates in Europe with only 175 deaths. It puts Sweden’s record to shame.
In fairness, the Swedish argument depends on how the situation looks in a year’s time, not today. Perhaps Swedes will have a degree of immunity that others do not, even though it is still not certain that infection leads to immunity. By maintaining near-normal life with only minor inconveniences, Swedes may not have to face the same levels of emotional stress and mental health issues as other populations that are isolated at home. And the Swedish economy may not be as constricted as those of other countries. Figures indicate that it grew in the first quarter of this year by 0.1 percent — something other countries have struggled to match. But the Swedish economy could still shrink by more than 7 percent this year.
Its economy is not isolated from the global economic slowdown and the pandemic has bitten hard.
“Be like Sweden” has become a slogan of anti-lockdown activists in the US and elsewhere. Sweden ranks high in the deaths per million of population, but several other European states that did lockdown, such as Belgium and Italy, have higher rates. Who knows, Swedish leaders and scientists may yet come out shining. Knowledge of the virus is still evolving, but it is tough to ignore the evidence piling up for suppression over mitigation, for restrictions over laissez-faire. The world will be watching Sweden closely.