All eyes on Thailand’s response to anti-government protests

Sizable and unrelenting protests, such as those we are currently seeing in Thailand, are a sign of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) era. Populations are fed up with the inequality that the COVID-19 pandemic has helped expose. Thailand, like many other countries, is going through a catharsis.

Thailand’s response to COVID-19 has been better than many other countries around the world. It is described by public health experts as a “COVID-19 star,” with fewer than 60 deaths and just 3,700 cases, even though it was the first country outside of China to report COVID-19 infections. A stringent government lockdown and decontamination program, enforced by the military and police, quickly followed.

But Thailand, like other countries, has its own unique issues. With the tourism economy collapsing and economic contraction poised to hit 10 percent this year, it is quickly becoming one of Asia’s biggest economic losers as a result of the virus. That spells instability.

The current demonstrations started in July with small-scale protests around university campuses. Once the protest movement began to address systemic issues, the focus of the Thai youth turned to Bangkok.

The Thai government has vowed to keep the country’s leadership intact despite the protesters’ calls for a new constitution and the curbing of King Vajiralongkorn’s powers and wealth. The demonstrators are also calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.

Importantly, counter-protesters are now beginning to appear. They want to keep the government and its programs intact in order to begin the country’s recovery immediately

Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, D.C. He is a former RAND Corporation Senior Political Scientist who lived in the UAE for 10 years, focusing on

security issues. and within the context of the current system of government. This dividing line between immediate and thought-out change is an important driver of how other governments are and will contend with population segments that are severely affected by COVID19’s economic and social damage. Many countries around the world have yet to see the total effect.

According to sources, the catalyst for the protests are the long periods of lockdown and antivirus measures that are resulting in deepening economic pessimism, rising poverty and a growing sense of futility for many young people. Students are especially hard-hit.

With almost half a million Thai students set to graduate over the course of the year, 80 percent of them do not have immediate or near-term employment prospects. They make up the bulk of the protesters.

Moreover, generational divisions in Thai society are playing a role in the protest movement. Young people, who are emboldened by social media messaging, want change, while older generations prefer order and stability — a story that is being repeated around the world.

Regional leaders are keenly aware that they will have to consider how to deal with their own restless populations should they be emboldened by events in Thailand. It is of great importance to watch how Bangkok contends with its domestic situation as the economic hardships of the pandemic fully emerge. Its response could affect regional stability and social cohesion and norms in a hyper-connected environment. Countries around the world are facing their own key questions of how best to move forward in the age of COVID-19.