The Turkish conundrum
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was among the last leaders to congratulate Joe
Biden for winning the US presidency. The Turkish president also thanked the current American president for fostering bilateral relations. Erdogan has had a special relationship with President Donald Trump and has enjoyed direct access to him. Turkey will present another conundrum for the incoming
Biden administration. The Biden administration needs Turkey as an ally though it disapproves of many of Turkey’s policies. As politics is the art of the possible, the US administration might be compelled to work with unsavory allies. Therefore, it will have to accommodate Erdogan on some fronts while confronting him on others. Keeping the balance in the relationship will, however, prove to be tricky and challenging.
Some of the Biden campaign promises have been to restore the role of the US on the world scene, mend the relationship with NATO allies, and stand up to Russia. If Biden is to deliver on any of those points, he will need to work with Turkey. However, Biden has already expressed his dislike of Erdogan. A video from 2019 emerged prior to the US elections in which Biden said that the US should support Erdogan’s domestic opponents. This statement created discomfort on the American and Turkish sides. An Erdogan spokesperson slammed the “interventionist” comment saying the US is not supposed to interfere in the internal affairs of another country, let alone a NATO ally.
The discomfort in the relationship between the two countries started with Barack Obama, as his administration relied on the
Kurds to fight Daesh. The YPG militia was the backbone of the forces that fought the terrorist group. However, Turkey saw no difference between the YPG militia and the PKK, the terrorist group that has been conducting attacks in Turkey for decades. Its frustration grew with the US’s increasing reliance on Kurdish fighters, for fear that the empowerment of the Kurds in Syria might embolden their kinsmen at home.
On this front, Erdogan had a better understanding with Trump. The latter who did not believe in sustained operations to maintain stability was eager to fulfill his campaign promise and withdraw from “endless wars,” hence from Syria. Following a phone call last year from the Turkish president, Trump withdrew from northeast Syria, paving the way for a Turkish incursion into the Kurds’ heartland. Trump doubled down on his position claiming the Kurds were not “angels” and that they “didn’t help” the US in Normandy during the Second World War.
Biden expressed strong opposition to Trump’s decision, claiming it would undermine US credibility. The Kurds were not the only point of contention with the Obama administration. Erdogan blamed the Obama administration for the failed Gulen coup. Biden’s comment about supporting the opponents of Erdogan is likely to increase this mistrust. To add to that, Biden — unlike Trump — might not shield Turkey from sanctions proposed by the US Congress, such as sanctioning Halkbank for dealing with Iran.